lundi 30 juin 2014

NOAA Weather Radio

http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/

Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones

Continental Europe animation

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 01 Jul 2014 06:00 to Wed 02 Jul 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 30 Jun 2014 22:06
Forecaster: BEYER/GATZEN
A level 2 was issued for north-eastern Spain and South-western France mainly due to large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 2 was issued for north-western parts of Russia mainly due to large hail and severe wind gusts as well as for tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for central Ukraine mainly due to severe wind gusts and large hail.

A level 1 was issued for the northern and eastern Alps mainly for large hail.

SYNOPSIS

A broad trough is covering most parts of Europe. One branch of the trough is influencing Eastern Europe. Its axis is orientated from the Baltic States all the way to the western parts of the Black Sea. With a westerly component rather cool air masses are advected into Central, and Eastern as well as Northern Europe. Downstream of the trough axis, hot and humid air masses are advected with a southerly flow into the easternmost parts of Europe as well as Western Russia.

The second branch of the broad trough is influencing Western Europe. During the forecast period the southern part of the positively tilted trough cuts of near the Bay of Biscay. On the downstream axis of the cut of low warm and humid air masses are advected to the north, influencing most parts of Southern Europe (Eastern Spain, Southern France, Italy and the Balkan Peninsula). On the other hand, over Portugal, Western Spain and the British Isles rather cool air masses are active. Both air masses are separated by a quasi-stationary surface cold front.

The ridge between both branches of the broad trough is quite shallow showing only slight anticylonical curvature.

TORNADO WARNING FOR.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN DAVIESS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  GRUNDY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  SOUTHWESTERN SULLIVAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 845 PM CDTClick for latest Composite Reflectivity radar image from the Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO radar and current weather warnings
La chaleur est accablante au Québec. Il y aura un risque d’orages parfois violents.

Tornado warning in Timmins - Cochrane - Iroquois Falls

Map of Ontario - northTornado warning in effect for:
  • Timmins - Cochrane - Iroquois Falls
Updated or ended by 7:49 p.m. EDT.

At 7:00 PM EDT, a thunderstorm near the Quebec border that has a history of showing signs of rotation based on radar. A tornado is possible from this thunderstorm. This thunderstorm will cross into Quebec at around 7:30 PM.
This is a dangerous and potentially life-threatening situation. Take cover immediately, if threatening weather approaches.

Go indoors to a room on the lowest floor, away from outside walls and windows, such as a basement, bathroom, stairwell or interior closet. Leave mobile homes, vehicles, tents, trailers and other temporary or free-standing shelter, and move to a strong building if you can. As a last resort, lie in a low spot and protect your head from flying debris.

In Canada, lightning kills up to 10 people every year.
Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors.

Emergency Management Ontario recommends that you take cover immediately, if threatening weather approaches.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required, so stay tuned to your local media or Weatheradio. Email reports of severe weather to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet with the hashtag #ONStorm.
A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN MERCER AND EAST
CENTRAL HARRISON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 558 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR RIDGEWAY...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.Click for latest Base Reflectivity radar image from the Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO radar and current weather warnings

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/

Current Convective Watches (View What is a Watch? clip)
Updated:  Mon Jun 30 23:12:08 UTC 2014

Valid WW Image WW Graphics Legend

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/

Current Mesoscale Discussions
Updated:  Mon Jun 30 23:09:03 UTC 2014

Valid MD Image
MD Legend Image

SPC Jun 30, 2014 2000Z Thunderstorm Outlook

Jun 30, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

   VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA/MO/IL AND
   FAR SOUTHERN WI...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS
   TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
   HAIL...TORNADOES...AND SWATHS OF WIND DAMAGE ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
   THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CORN BELT AND
   MIDWEST. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
   SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DURING THE PERIOD TO
   THE NORTH OF A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
   THE CONUS. IN PARTICULAR...A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
   OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...WITH A SEASONALLY STRONG UPPER
   JET/AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. AS A
   RESULT...HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASINGLY STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
   WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION/UPPER MIDWEST AND
   LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD
   FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE/LOWER MO VALLEY...UPPER MIDWEST...AND
   SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE A GENERAL FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

   ...LOWER/MIDDLE MO VALLEY TO MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES...
   AS COMPARED TO SUNDAY...UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE MUCH
   MORE CONSEQUENTIAL /ESPECIALLY BY LATE JUNE STANDARDS/ AND MORE
   OPTIMALLY TIMED RELATIVE TO PEAK HEATING. IN THE PRESENCE OF A VERY
   MOIST AIR MASS AND ROBUST INSTABILITY...LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES...AND
   POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
   LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

   EARLY DAY CONVECTION AND RELATED OUTFLOWS/CLOUD DEBRIS ONCE AGAIN
   ACCOUNT FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO SOME OF THE FORECAST DETAILS
   LATER TODAY. IN PARTICULAR...A REMNANT OVERNIGHT MCS COULD PERSIST
   EARLY TODAY ACROSS LOWER MI/NORTHERN INDIANA VICINITY...WHILE
   ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NEB/NORTHERN
   KS TO WESTERN IA THIS MORNING. ITS POSSIBLE THAT THESE STORMS ACROSS
   THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY COULD PERSIST/BECOME SURFACE-BASED DURING THE
   DAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION/DPVA. OF
   GREATER LIKELIHOOD MAY BE FOR THESE STORMS TO GENERALLY DECAY...WITH
   SUBSEQUENT SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HEIGHT
   FALLS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER AGGRESSIVELY
   DESTABILIZES.

   OF NOTE RELATED TO NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...THE 00Z NAM/GFS APPEAR TO BE
   OVERLY INFLUENCED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ACROSS IA INTO THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY/LAKE MI VICINITY. WHILE REAL-WORLD FEEDBACK IS INDEED
   POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG DIABATIC HEATING/RICH MOISTURE...THE EXACT
   RAMIFICATIONS ARE UNCERTAIN...AND THE EXTREME DETAILS OF THESE
   PROGGED DOWNSTREAM INFLUENCES /ROBUST MAGNITUDE OF THE PROGGED
   LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD ETC./ ARE PROBABLY AT LEAST SOMEWHAT OVERDONE.

   REGARDLESS...THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO IS FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS
   TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS IA/NORTHERN
   MO TO THE EAST OF AN ADVANCING SURFACE LOW AND NEAR THE
   SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. GIVEN EARLIER EVENING /00Z/
   OBSERVED REGIONAL RAOBS...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE
   70S SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE NEARBY WARM
   SECTOR. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STRONG
   DESTABILIZATION...IN THE ABSENCE OF OUTFLOWS AND LINGERING THICK
   CLOUD COVER...WITH AS MUCH AS 4000-5500 J/KG OF MLCAPE EXPECTED FROM
   KS INTO IA/NORTHERN MO AND IL. ROBUST INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF
   40+ KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT INTENSE SUPERCELLS AS THE
   INITIAL STORM MODE WITH A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND SOME
   TORNADOES. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE INFLUENCED BY DIURNALLY
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS/SRH...ESPECIALLY NEAR/EAST OF THE DEVELOPING
   SURFACE LOW. GIVEN RELATIVELY STRONG FORCING FOR EARLY SUMMER...AND
   THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLD FRONT...UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR GROWTH IS
   LIKELY TO OCCUR BY EARLY/MID-EVENING. AS SUCH...A POTENTIALLY
   WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD EVOLVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA
   AND NORTHERN MO INTO IL/SOUTHERN WI AND POSSIBLE LOWER MI/NORTHERN
   INDIANA DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. 

   ...SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...
   STRONG WARM SECTOR HEATING/FRONTAL UPLIFT SHOULD OVERCOME WARM
   MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES/CAPPING WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
   STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BY LATE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH OF THE
   STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT...BUT AROUND 30 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND
   MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY /NEAR THE FRONT AND DRYLINE/ WILL ALLOW
   FOR SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS.
   LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

   ...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST STATES...
   WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR/OVERALL FORCING WILL BE WEAK...SUFFICIENT
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BUOYANCY MAY EXIST FOR PULSE-TYPE STORMS
   CAPABLE OF MICROBURSTS THIS AFTERNOON.

dimanche 29 juin 2014

Public Weather Alerts for Canada,,,,,,,,,,,,,https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html

Map of Canada
today Filtered Reports Graphic
SPC Products Overview

http://www.severe-weather.eu/nowcasting/satellite-images/

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en

             

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 29 Jun 2014 06:00 to Mon 30 Jun 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 29 Jun 2014 04:22
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
A level 2 was issued for N Italy mainly for severe convective wind gusts, large hail and excessive convective precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for parts of central Europe mainly for large hail.

SYNOPSIS

The cold front associated with a large amplitude mid level trough from Scandinavia to the Mediterranean Sea is pushing eastward through Italy and central Europe today. Surface level lows reside over southern Scandinavia and northern Italy. Cold airmass thunderstorms are likely over France, Benelux and western Germany. The prefrontal airmass over Italy is moderately unstable due to the presence of the Saharan Air Layer with steep mid level lapse rates and 10-12 g/kg moist boundary layer air. Strong winds in mid levels create a favorable kinematic environment for storms.

Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones

http://tvnweather.com/live

Logo      StormScapeLIVE.TV,,,on a warned Tornado cellClick for latest Base Reflectivity radar image from the Topeka, KS radar and current weather warnings

TORNADO WARNING....NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA

.A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL SHELBY COUNTY...

AT 814 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR EARLING...OR 21
MILES SOUTH OF DENISON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  NORTHEASTERN ANDREW COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI...
  SOUTHEASTERN NODAWAY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 758 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF FILLMORE...AND MOVING
  EAST AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

Tornado,,,,,2 miles W of PORTSMOUTH, IA

2014-06-30 01:02:00 UTC
multiple vorticies coming
out of wall cloud dancing on
ground, 4 miles to my north east, now

http://www.severestudios.com/livechase

       Tj Kleckner  near the tornado warned cell

tornado warning!!!! NWS Des Moines, IA

Click for latest Composite Reflectivity radar image from the Des Moines, IA radar and current weather warnings

Oh! man if I was on vacation next tuesday,North Est in Abitibi-Témiscamingue would be my destination ,Just check the models and get prepared for a good and severe storm chasing!!!!!

Tornado,,,,,,,,, miles ESE of TENNANT, IA

2014-06-29 23:18:00 UTC
Long slender needle funnel
3/4 way to ground with debris. has
lifted. approx 5 to NW

Omaha, NE Radar

Click for latest Base Reflectivity radar image from the Omaha, NE radar and current weather warnings

2 miles N of PERSIA, IA


Tornado

2014-06-29 23:10:00 UTC
Small tornado on the ground 60
seconds
Click map for watches

NWS Topeka, KS

Graphical depiction of the weather story for today.*PLEASE SHARE* with family and friends who live in the area. Scattered severe storms are possible late this afternoon and evening. Areas shaded in red will see the highest chances for severe weather with storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds in excess of 60 mph, and localized flooding. An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Another round of severe storms is once again possible for much of northeast Kansas tomorrow afternoon. Stay tuned to forecast updates later today.

NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Graphical depiction of the weather story for today.Severe weather is expected to return to much of the area today, with very large hail, damaging winds and even a tornado or two all possible. Although severe storms with large hail are possible later this morning into early afternoon, severe weather chances will increase by mid afternoon as temperatures warm into the 80s. In addition to the severe weather threat, any storm could contain very heavy rainfall, although the heaviest rain was not likely to focus on any one particular location. If the activity forms into a larger complex late this afternoon through early evening the main weather threat could shift to damaging winds and heavy rain and then possibly shift southeast of the region. However, conditions are favorable for renewed development late tonight into Monday morning with heavy rain and severe thunderstorms remaining a possibility, especially across southeast sections, into Monday afternoon.

NWS Des Moines, IA

Graphical depiction of the weather story for today.Significant severe weather is possible both today and Monday over a large part of our forecast area. Both days we may see some tornadoes...very large hail...and widespread damaging winds. There will also be the potential for locally heavy rainfall today and Monday. Monday may also bring a widespread significant wind event to the area in the late morning and afternoon to evening hours. Be prepared...stay alert to changing conditions today and Monday. Monitor forecasts for possible watches and warnings. Review your severe weather safety procedures and move to a place of safety if a warning is issued for your area.

NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

Graphical depiction of the weather story for today.Several rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible through Monday afternoon. The first round is expected this afternoon through this evening with storms developing in the vicinity of far northwestern Missouri. These storms may initially be supercells with large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible. As storms evolve with time, the hazards will become mainly damaging winds and large hail. Additional severe storms are possible Monday afternoon through the overnight hours. Large hail and damaging winds are the main hazards. Additionally, flash flooding is possible both days as storms will produce copious amounts of rainfall on a localized scale.

SPC Jun 29, 2014 0600Z Thunderstorm Outlook

Jun 29, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1129 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

   VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF
   NEB...KS...IA...AND MO...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
   AREA FROM THE CNTRL PLNS INTO THE MID MS VLY...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPR MS VLY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...A FEW
   TORNADOES...AND SWATHS OF DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
   AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MID AND UPPER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   SEASONABLY STRONG WLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD FROM THE PACIFIC
   NW TO THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY ON SRN SIDE OF NEARLY STNRY VORTEX
   OVER SRN MB. LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WITH THIS VORTEX...NOW OVER ERN
   WI...WILL CONTINUE ENE ACROSS MI LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A
   WEAKER/SMALLER UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER CNTRL MN. FARTHER
   SW...SATELLITE INDICATES A POSSIBLE LOW-AMPLITUDE FEATURE NOW OVER
   WRN NEB THAT SHOULD CONTINUE ESE INTO THE LWR MO/MID MS VLYS BY EVE.

   AT THE SFC...MAIN COLD FRONT WITH MB SYSTEM ATTM ARCS FROM N CNTRL
   MN S AND SW THROUGH CNTRL NEB INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLNS. THE FRONT
   SHOULD ADVANCE STEADILY E ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY TODAY...WHILE THE
   SRN PART BECOMES STNRY OVER NEB AS A WEAK LEE LOW FORMS TNGT/EARLY
   MON ALONG EXISTING LEE TROUGH OVER NE CO/NW KS.

   ...CNTRL PLNS INTO MID/UPR MS VLYS TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
   OVERALL SETUP OVER THIS REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS WILL BE
   SUPPORTIVE OF MULTIPLE EPISODES/AREAS OF STRONG TO SVR TSTMS...WITH
   CONDITIONAL RISKS FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND...AND TORNADOES.
   THE PATTERN WILL...HOWEVER...REMAIN COMPLICATED BY /1/ PRESENCE OF
   EXISTING CONVECTION AND /2/ THE FACT THAT UPR-LVL FORCING FOR ASCENT
   WILL BE SOMEWHAT FRACTURED AND/OR POSSIBLY NOT OPTIMALLY
   LOCATED/TIMED WITH RESPECT TO AREAS OF STRONGEST LOW-LVL
   CONVERGENCE.

   GIVEN THE CONTINUED WEAKENING OF SCTD ON-GOING TSTMS...IT APPEARS
   THAT POCKETS OF STRONG INSTABILITY /SBCAPE AOA 4000 J PER KG/ SHOULD
   DEVELOP WITH SFC HEATING FROM S CNTRL NEB SWD INTO CNTRL/WRN
   KS...AND FROM ERN NEB ESEWD INTO PARTS OF IA...ERN KS...AND NW MO.
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE WEAK...WITH
   OVERALL HEIGHT RISES OCCURRING IN WAKE OF UPR MS TROUGH. THESE RISES
   WILL...HOWEVER...BE SOMEWHAT COUNTERACTED BY UPLIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
   DISTURBANCE NOW OVER WRN NEB. IF SUSTAINED STORMS DO FORM...AND THIS
   SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT...40-50 KT WNWLY DEEP SHEAR ON SRN FRINGE
   OF MB LOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. COUPLED WITH RICH
   MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...THESE COULD YIELD
   LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND. TORNADOES ALSO MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY LATE
   THIS AFTN AND EARLY TNGT WITH STORMS MOVING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   SEGMENTS LEFT BY EARLIER STORMS.

   GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF SHEAR/BUOYANCY...AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
   MULTIPLE AREAS OF STORM GENERATION...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
   UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO MCSS. THESE COULD CONTAIN
   FOREWARD-PROPAGATING/BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DMGG WIND...ALTHOUGH
   EXPECTED FRACTURED NATURE OF LOW-LVL INSTABILITY FIELD LOWERS
   CONFIDENCE FOR ANY LONG-LIVED DERECHOS.

   ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS...SOME WITH SVR HAIL AND POSSIBLY
   WIND...MAY OCCUR LATE TNGT THROUGH EARLY MON OVER PARTS OF NEB AND
   NRN KS...WHERE MOIST/SLY LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN E OF LEE LOW IN
   RESPONSE TO AN ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE IN WLY FLOW ALOFT.

   IN THE UPR MS VLY...A SEPARATE AREA OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS MAY
   EVOLVE WITH SFC HEATING THIS AFTN AHEAD OF MN UPR IMPULSE. DEEP
   SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE STRONGER RELATIVE TO POINTS
   SOUTH...AND MID-LVL TEMPS WILL REMAIN COMPARATIVELY COOL. THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER...HOWEVER...BY COMPARISON WILL BE SOMEWHAT
   COOLER/DRIER. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN 50 KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR AND
   CONVERGENT LOW-LVL FLOW ALONG/AHEAD OF MN COLD FRONT...A CONDITIONAL
   RISK WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH SVR
   HAIL/WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO ENE INTO THE MN
   ARROWHEAD...WI...AND PERHAPS WRN UPR MI..

   ...SRN HIGH PLNS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE...
   STRONG SFC HEATING ALONG DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH SHOULD FOSTER ISOLD TO
   WDLY SCTD HIGH-BASED TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE...DESPITE ABSENCE OF ANY
   IDENTIFIABLE FEATURE TO ENHANCE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT.
   DEEP/WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER BENEATH 800-1500 J/KG
   MLCAPE COULD SUPPORT STG/ISOLD SVR GUSTS AND HAIL BEFORE STORMS
   WEAKEN WITH NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN CIN.

   ...ERN LWR MI...OH/TN VALLEYS THIS AFTN...
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING LEAD UPR IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT AN ARC OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS OVER ERN LWR MI
   TODAY...WHERE WIND PROFILES APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME DEGREE OF
   STORM ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE AND PERHAPS A FEW INSTANCES OF LOCALLY
   DMGG WIND.

   FARTHER S...RELATIVELY WEAK CINH AND LIFT ALONG EXISTING
   OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROMOTE SCTD TSTM
   CLUSTERS SWD INTO THE OH AND TN VLYS. MULTICELLULAR STORMS MAY YIELD
   A FEW DMGG GUSTS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

http://www.meteoalarm.eu/

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 29 Jun 2014 06:00 to Wed 30 Jul 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 29 Jun 2014 04:22
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
A level 2 was issued for N Italy mainly for severe convective wind gusts, large hail and excessive convective precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for parts of central Europe mainly for large hail.

SYNOPSIS

The cold front associated with a large amplitude mid level trough from Scandinavia to the Mediterranean Sea is pushing eastward through Italy and central Europe today. Surface level lows reside over southern Scandinavia and northern Italy. Cold airmass thunderstorms are likely over France, Benelux and western Germany. The prefrontal airmass over Italy is moderately unstable due to the presence of the Saharan Air Layer with steep mid level lapse rates and 10-12 g/kg moist boundary layer air. Strong winds in mid levels create a favorable kinematic environment for storms.

DISCUSSION

...Italy, southern Austria and western Balkan...

Some regional WRF models predict over 2500 J/kg SBCAPE over the Lgurian Sea. MLCAPE should be 1000-2000 J/kg. This will be capped south of the Po valley. Either way, given the 20 m/s deep layer shear and strong moisture lifting over the south slopes of the Alps triggering of supercells and MCSes is highly probable, with chances of widespread large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. During the evening as the cold front comes through, the model scenario (GFS, WRF) is that some discrete supercells or a linear system will also affect the area south of the Po valley. The area of Austria to Croatia will likely see the strongest moisture lift and largest storms, and can become affected by excessive convective rainfall, at least locally. The PV/dynamic tropopause intrusion acquires a negative tilt at night which might help to keep the storms active for long in the region near Slovenia, although WRF models keep the storms moving. Tornadoes are not ruled out with pre-Alpine 0-1 km shear of 8 m/s and locally higher.

...Hungary, N and E Austria, Czechia, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania...

Relatively modest MLCAPE should exist in a broad area from Hungary/Austria to the Baltics. The presence of 10-15 m/s deep layer shear could develop persistent and rotating updrafts which can locally release large hail. The frontal convergence zone in the Austrian-Hungarian-Czechian borders region should be the main focus for convective development, another is NE Poland and Lithuania near the occlusion.

...southern Sweden and Norway...

Some instability is present within the low. Low cloud bases and slow cell motion combined with good low-level buoyancy and convergence zones are found mainly over southern Sweden. Such conditions are favorable for spout type tornadoes and funnels.