mercredi 30 juillet 2014

EWN Significant Weather Threat Map,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,http://www.ewn.com.au/info/significant_weather_forecast_map.aspx

EWN Significant Weather Forecast Map

Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones

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A community project with free lightning maps and applications

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European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 31 Jul 2014 06:00 to Fri 01 Aug 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 31 Jul 2014 00:30
Forecaster: GATZEN
A level 2 was issued for parts of Finland mainly for severe wind gusts, tornadoes, and large hail.

A level 1 was issued for Finland and north-western Russia mainly for severe wind gusts, tornadoes, and large hail.

A level 1 was issued for Greece to Bulgaria and southern Romania mainly for large hail and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for the Baltic States, eastern Poland into Czech Rep, Slovakia, eastern Austria, Hungary, and the northern Balkans as well as the Alpine region mainly for excessive precipitation and to a lower extend large hail.

SYNOPSIS

A well-developed cut-off low moves slowly from the Adriatic Sea to the Balkan Peninsula. To its north, an intensifying ridge stretches from south-western Europe across central Europe to western Russia. A head of low geopotential over north-western Europe and the north-east Atlantic, several short-wave troughs move north-eastward.

At lower levels, a cold front has crossed Sweden and Germany and will affect a region from Finland to Poland and the northern Balkans on Thursday. Rich low-level moisture ahead of the front will allow for CAPE around 1000 J/kg in the afternoon hours. Rich moisture will also remain in the Alpine region, whereas drier air spreads into Germany and France.

Most storms will be weakly organized on Thursday, and main threat will be excessive precipitation given the moist profiles ahead of the cold front. Better storm organization due to stronger vertical wind shear can be expected in the vicinity of the cut-off low over Greece and Bulgaria as well as ahead of a short-wave trough entering Finland during the day.

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 30 Jul 2014 06:00 to Thu 31 Jul 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 29 Jul 2014 22:23
Forecaster: PUCIK
A level 2 was issued for E Adriatics coastline mainly for excessive precipitation and to the lesser extent for tornadoes, severe wind gusts and large hail.

A level 2 was issued for SE Austria, SW Hungary, N Croatia and N Serbia mainly for excessive precipitation, large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for parts of Italy, Serbia, Balkans mainly for excessive precipitation and to the lesser extent for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for parts of Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria and N Hungary mainly for excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

Main macrosynoptic feature will remain in the form of a deep mid to upper tropospheric low moving from N Italy towards Balkans during the forecast period. It is expected to deccelerate and gradually fill out towards the Thursday morning. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected ahead of the progressing low and along the wavy frontal boundary in the unstable airmass. Towards the north, geopotential fields will be rather weak, but still scattered thunderstorms are expected in moist airmass in the belt from N Germany and Poland towards Hungary. Some activity is also expected over Scandinavia with WAA regime ongoing on the forward flank of the low over the Norwegian Sea.

lundi 28 juillet 2014

Continental Europe animation

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 28 Jul 2014 06:00 to Tue 29 Jul 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 27 Jul 2014 21:53
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER
A level 1 was issued for northeast Sweden and parts of Finland, mainly for heavy rain and to a lesser extent for large hail and severe wind gusts,

A level 1 was issued for parts of eastern France, for Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Germany, and for north, west and south Poland, as well as for the Alpine countries, the Czech Republic, Slovakia parts of Hungary, northern Italy and the northwestern Balkans. It is issued mainly for heavy rain.

A level 1 was issued for cental and south Romania, eastern Serbia and NW Bulgaria.

A level 1 was issued for NE Spain, mainly for large hail.

SYNOPSIS

A broad trough covers most of western and central Europe. The air-mass is rather warm, humid and somewhat unstable. Within the through, a fairly strong cold-core mid-level cyclone located over the English Channel will move to south France by Tuesday morning. An embedded shotwave trough stretching from the eastern Alps across the western Balkans moves slowly eastward. Within a westerly flow across northern Europe, an embedded shortwave trough should reach the Norwegian coast by 00 UTC.
SPC Products Overview

SPC Jul 28, 2014 1630Z Thunderstorm Outlook

Jul 28, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1121 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

   VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE
   COASTAL CAROLINAS TO THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE COASTAL
   CAROLINAS EXTENDING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
   COAST STATES.  ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR TODAY
   OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.

   ...EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN MS/AL...
   A LARGE UPPER TROUGH HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
   STATES...WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NC INTO THE
   GULF COAST STATES.  AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG HEATING WILL
   YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
   AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN NC/SC INTO PARTS OF GA/AL/MS.  THUNDERSTORMS
   ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NEAR SEA BREEZE
   BOUNDARIES.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER STRONG WINDS ALOFT FROM
   GA NORTHEASTWARD...WHERE ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES ARE
   POSSIBLE.  THIS AREA IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
   CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  FARTHER WESTWARD...VERTICAL
   SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAKER...BUT POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR A ISOLATED
   SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

   ...NEW ENGLAND...
   A COMPACT UPPER LOW IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NY.  A MID LEVEL
   DRY SLOT IS ROTATING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW...WHERE SOME
   DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL OCCUR THIS
   AFTERNOON.  RESIDUAL DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND COOLING TEMPERATURES
   ALOFT WILL PROMOTE CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  THE
   THREAT SHOULD END RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

dimanche 27 juillet 2014

Public Weather Alerts for Ontario - south,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=son

Map of Ontario - south     Watch 

Current Mesoscale Discussions,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/

Valid MD Image
MD Legend Image

MD1482 Thumbnail ImageMesoscale Discussion #1482
Issued: 27/1654 UTC
Until: 27/1800 UTC
Concerning: SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE


MD1481 Thumbnail ImageMesoscale Discussion #1481
Issued: 27/1652 UTC
Until: 27/1815 UTC
Concerning: SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

SPC Jul 27, 2014 1300Z Thunderstorm Outlook

Click map for watches

Jul 27, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN OHIO AND EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO
   WESTERN/CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
   AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION
   INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION INTO PORTIONS OF
   SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  SWATHS OF POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
   LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
   OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHERE A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
   MAY ALSO NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MUCH AS HAS BEEN INDICATE BY THE MODELS...AMPLIFICATION APPEARS
   UNDERWAY WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW PATTERN.  AS SUBTROPICAL
   RIDGING BUILDS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
   AND ROCKIES...A CLOSED LOW...WHICH HAS BEEN UNDERCUTTING THE
   BLOCKING HIGH OVER NORTHERN CANADA...IS CURRENTLY TURNING SOUTHEAST
   OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  THIS
   FEATURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DIGGING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
   OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD TOWARD THE
   NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...TO
   THE SOUTH OF THE PERSISTENT EASTERN CANADIAN VORTEX.  AS THIS
   OCCURS...SEASONABLY STRONG /50-70 KT/ CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
   /700-500 MB/ IS EXPECTED TO NOSE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO
   VALLEY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION.  AND AN INITIAL
   SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT LIKELY WILL SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MUCH
   OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY 12Z MONDAY.

   WITH MOISTURE SEASONABLY HIGH BENEATH THE REMNANTS OF ELEVATED MIXED
   LAYER AIR STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
   A LARGE PORTION OF THE OHIO VALLEY...SUFFICIENT POTENTIAL
   INSTABILITY EXISTS TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   TODAY.  THIS WILL INCLUDE THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...IN THE
   PRESENCE OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR.  

   OTHERWISE...LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
   PLATEAU/GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND
   EASTWARD ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
   PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY TODAY.  ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
   PROBABLE IN THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR
   NEAR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.

   ...OHIO VALLEY INTO MID ATLANTIC COAST/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
   REGION...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH STILL
   MAY OCCUR UPSTREAM OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PRIOR TO
   DAYBREAK...PROVIDE UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE EXTENT AND MODE OF THE
   SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TODAY.  THE WEAKENING LEAD CONVECTION
   APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE THAT EMERGED FROM THE
   SOUTHWESTERN U.S. MONSOONAL REGIME.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
   SHIFT EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
   AREAS BY MIDDAY...WHERE ASSOCIATED FORCING MAY SUPPORT RENEWED
   STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF A DESTABILIZING
   BOUNDARY LAYER.  

   IN ITS WAKE...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION...IT
   APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT A TRAILING LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
   THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY COULD BECOME A
   FOCUS FOR DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS THE MAIN UPSTREAM IMPULSE
   CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  IF THIS OCCURS...MOST
   GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND
   SHEAR...INCLUDING SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   STRONG TORNADOES.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW AT THE PRESENT
   TIME...BUT THE BOUNDARY WOULD SEEM TO FOCUS THE HIGHEST TORNADO
   PROBABILITIES ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO WEST VIRGINIA.  

   THE EVOLUTION OF A SIGNIFICANT PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE ALSO DOES NOT
   APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION...AS STRONGEST MID/UPPER FORCING FOR
   UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
   VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE
   CONTINUING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT.  AGAIN THIS
   LARGELY DEPENDS ON THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION PRIOR TO MID
   AFTERNOON...WHICH STILL REMAINS UNCLEAR AT THE PRESENT TIME.
Click for more maps

Continental Europe animation

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 27 Jul 2014 06:00 to Mon 28 Jul 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 27 Jul 2014 06:28
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
A level 2 and a level 1 were issued for SE Italy, S Adriatic Sea, SW Balkan mainly for excessive convective precipitation, large hail, and tornadoes.
A level 1 was issued for S Germany and the northern Alpine region mainly for excessive convective precipitation.
A level 1 was issued for N Scandinavia mainly for large hail.
A level 1 was issued for N Catalonia mainly for large hail.

SYNOPSIS

Slight low pressure prevails from N Scandinavia into central Europe and Balkan, with steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture to create weakly capped MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg. Vertical shear and deep lifting will be weak or absent over a large part of this area. However, two upper/mid level lows are found on the map. One moves from Scotland toward northern France with the potential of destabilizing the Benelux, S UK and NW France at night. The other low moves from Italy into southern Balkan and is causing active thunderstorms over a large area and enhanced deep layer shear.

samedi 26 juillet 2014

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en

  
National Weather Outlook

Convective Outlooks

Today's Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook graphic and text
This is tomorrow's forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlookis available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.Tomorrow's Outlook
Current Day 2 Convective Outlook graphic and text
This is the day after tomorrow's (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.Day 3 Outlook
Current Day 3 Convective Outlook graphic
and text
SPC Products Overview

SPC Jul 26, 2014 0600Z Thunderstorm Outlook

Jul 26, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1257 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN INDIANA...BUT THIS INCLUDES AT LEAST PARTS OF THE GREATER
   ST. LOUIS...INDIANAPOLIS...LOUISVILLE AND CINCINNATI METROPOLITAN
   AREAS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
   AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE STORMS...SOME ACCOMPANIED BY VERY LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY STRONG
   WIND GUSTS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS.  ONE
   OR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF GENERATING SWATHS
   OF POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY EVOLVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
   INDIANA...PERHAPS REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY LATE TONIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WHILE BLOCKING APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN PROMINENT WITHIN THE
   WESTERLIES ACROSS THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA...MODELS
   INDICATE UPPER TROUGHING EITHER SIDE OF THE HIGH CENTER OVER
   INTERIOR NORTHERN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DURING
   THIS PERIOD.  AS THIS OCCURS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
   BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
   AND ROCKIES...AND THE CLOSED LOW...NOW UNDERCUTTING THE CANADIAN
   HIGH...SHOULD DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S.
   BORDER AREA.

   CONSIDERABLE SPREAD LINGERS WITHIN THE VARIOUS MODEL ENSEMBLE OUTPUT
   CONCERNING THIS LATTER DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF AND 21Z NCEP
   SREF ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANT UPPER LOW/TROUGH
   PROBABLY WILL NOT REACH THE UPPER MIDWEST UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING OR
   OVERNIGHT.  WHILE THE MAIN TRANSITION TO STRENGTHENING AND
   INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL WELL AFTER
   DARK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT AS WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE WITHIN THE
   NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME PRECEDING IT.

   BENEATH A REMNANT PLUME OF VERY WARM AND CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED
   LAYER AIR ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER NORTHWEST
   FLOW...LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER
   MISSOURI/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTIVE OF
   INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND THE FOCUS FOR THE PRIMARY SEVERE
   WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY.

   WEST SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG AN INITIAL SURFACE FRONT ADVANCING
   SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS
   LOWER DUE TO STRONGER LINGERING MID-LEVEL INHIBITION AND WEAKER
   SHEAR.  HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY NOT
   BE OUT OF THE QUESTION NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. 
   OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY
   SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN RESPONSE TO THE
   EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN...ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
   REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS
   THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY
   LATE TONIGHT.

   MEANWHILE...MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
   SOUTHERN PLATEAU INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL AGAIN
   SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

   ...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...
   CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT PROVIDE CLARITY FOR THIS
   FORECAST...OFFERING A RATHER BROAD RANGE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. 
   HOWEVER...A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN THE NAM AND
   ECMWF...AMONG OTHER MODEL OUTPUT...SUGGESTING THAT POTENTIAL EXISTS
   FOR THE EVOLUTION OF ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
   SYSTEMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI THROUGH LOWER OHIO
   VALLEYS DURING THIS PERIOD.  GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENT
   CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS REGION BY LATE
   AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
   WEATHER EVENT WILL BE REALIZED.

   ALONG/NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF AN AXIS OF STRONG SURFACE HEATING
   ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS...MOISTENING BENEATH
   THE AXIS OF STEEPEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE
   CAPE...BEFORE INHIBITION GRADUALLY ERODES.  PROBABLY AIDED BY
   FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
   ADVECTION...INITIATION OF STORMS MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO 21Z ACROSS PARTS
   OF SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.  INITIALLY DISCRETE...A FEW
   SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE
   HAIL...PERHAPS TORNADOES...BEFORE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATES
   INTO AN ORGANIZING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND DEVELOPS
   SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA
   THROUGH THE EVENING.

   ALTHOUGH MORE UNCERTAIN...AS INITIAL ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SPREAD
   TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
   THE DIGGING UPSTREAM IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT RENEWED CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDDLE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  AT LEAST SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS COULD
   EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
   SYSTEM...IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO THE
   PRODUCTION OF STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.