mardi 26 mai 2015

Russ Contreras.........live ,,,,, https://tvnweather.com/live

Logo 600x80

Beavercreek Tornado

http://www.whio.com/videos/news/beavercreek-tornado/vDSwLn/?ecmp=whiotv_social_facebook_2014_sfp

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qSP0g47Wyos

5/26/2015 Brandon Ivey Storm Chasing Live Stream NE of Breckenridge, TX

May 26, 2015 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1252 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
   LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS....

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
   GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND PLAINS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
   GULF COAST REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
   LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY.  ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
   PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT MID/UPPER FLOW MAY TREND A BIT MORE ZONAL
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD.  THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
   CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST MAY WEAKEN SOME...BUT A RIDGE
   AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO AREAS JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW
   ENGLAND COAST IS EXPECTED TO HOLD FIRM.  AT THE SAME TIME RIDGING IS
   EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE
   SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC.  WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON THE
   NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LATTER FEATURE APPROACHES BAJA...SHORT
   WAVE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
   ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
   NOW PIVOTING NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

   THIS LEAD IMPULSE APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF MERGING WITH THE
   REMNANTS OF A MID-LEVEL LOW...WITHIN A BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE
   NORTH...NOW SHIFTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL
   PLAINS...AHEAD OF ANOTHER BROAD LOW DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN
   INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.  AS THIS CONTINUES...THE CONSOLIDATING IMPULSE
   IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
   REGION...WHERE AT LEAST MODEST DEEPENING OF A SURFACE CYCLONE
   APPEARS POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

   A TRAILING SURFACE FRONT MAY ADVANCE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
   UPPER MIDWEST...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE
   TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...THIS FRONT MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY
   WELL-DEFINED...DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVELY PROCESSED AIR TO ITS
   SOUTHEAST.  PERHAPS MOST PROMINENT IS THE CONGLOMERATE SURFACE COLD
   POOL ACCOMPANYING THE EXTENSIVE WEAKENING SQUALL LINE NOW ADVANCING
   THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. 
   ALTHOUGH A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE AROUND THE EASTERN
   PERIPHERY OF WESTERN ATLANTIC/SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SURFACE
   RIDGING...MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY BE
   DISRUPTED...AND THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THIS AIR MASS ON MUCH
   OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY BE
   CONSIDERABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

   ...GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION...
   ALTHOUGH SUBSTANTIVE STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEARS
   UNLIKELY...DAYTIME HEATING OF A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER /AHEAD OF
   THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WARM
   SECTOR OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE/ PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENT
   TO SUPPORT WEAK TO MODEST MIXED LAYER CAPE BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
   INSTABILITY...COINCIDENT WITH STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY TO
   SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS TO 30-50 KT...IS
   EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A MIXTURE OF ORGANIZED
   CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS.  STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
   TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AS IT
   SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
   EARLY EVENING HOURS.

   ...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR.  MOST OF THE REGION MAY
   BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROADER SCALE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES...BUT
   WEAK UPPER TROUGHING MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE TEXAS/ OKLAHOMA
   PANHANDLE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON.  BENEATH A RESIDUAL
   POCKET OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A ZONE OF STRONGER
   DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
   OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS SEEMS LIKELY TO PROVIDE THE PRIMARY
   FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE
   THAT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE MIXED
   LAYER CAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  AS INHIBITION ERODES DURING PEAK
   HEATING...THE INITIATION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS IS
   EXPECTED...IN THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.  THIS
   MAY INCLUDE THE RISK FOR TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR INCREASES WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING THIS EVENING.  AIDED
   BY ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...A SMALL BUT
   ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE OVER PARTS OF
   NORTHWEST TEXAS...BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT.
Click map for watches

SPC May 26, 2015 0600Z Thunderstorm Outlook

lundi 25 mai 2015

Live

http://www.katv.com/category/273536/live-stream-newscasts


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/

Current Convective Watches (View What is a Watch? clip)
Updated:  Mon May 25 23:32:07 UTC 2015

Valid WW ImageWW Graphics Legend

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/

Current Mesoscale Discussions
Updated:  Mon May 25 23:32:03 UTC 2015

Valid MD Image

Convective Outlooks

This is tomorrow's forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.Tomorrow's Outlook
Current Day 2 Convective Outlook graphic and text
This is the day after tomorrow's (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.Day 3 Outlook
Current Day 3 Convective Outlook graphic
and text
Click map for Details from SPC!

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/

Current Mesoscale Discussions
Updated:  Mon May 25 09:44:03 UTC 2015

Valid MD Image
MD Legend ImageMesoscale Discussion # 757Mesoscale Discussion # 756

MD0757 Thumbnail ImageMesoscale Discussion #0757
Issued: 25/0817 UTC
Until: 25/1215 UTC
Concerning: 01Z OUTLOOK UPGRADE

SPC May 25, 2015 0600Z Thunderstorm Outlook

Click map for watches

May 25, 2015 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1256 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
   INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
   THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A CORRIDOR EXTENDING ACROSS
   THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
   CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
   MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY.  STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  A FEW
   TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SUBTROPICAL RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN PROMINENT ALONG
   ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  MODELS DO INDICATE THAT
   UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN INTO CENTRAL U.S. MAY BEGIN TO
   DEAMPLIFY A BIT...BUT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO
   PERSIST...WITH A NUMBER OF SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
   PERTURBATIONS.  SEVERAL OF THESE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST OF
   THE ROCKIES...WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
   PLAINS...MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS...AND GREAT LAKES REGION...ABOVE A
   PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

   THIS INCLUDES ONE IMPULSE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT NORTHEAST OF
   THE MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY
   TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW
   ACROSS AND NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  UPSTREAM...THE
   REMNANTS OF A COMPACT...BUT SIGNIFICANT...MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION /NOW
   PROGRESSING INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS/ ARE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD
   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RED RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY TODAY. 
   GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IT WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE LOWER
   MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT...JUST AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF THE CLOSED
   LOW NOW BEGINNING TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
   ROCKIES.

   ...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE THAT A 30-50 KT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC JET
   WILL ACCOMPANY THE IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS
   FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO NOSE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE BIG BEND
   REGION AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING.  ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
   ASCENT...COUPLED WITH RETURNING MOISTURE BENEATH AT LEAST MODESTLY
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MAY ALREADY BE IN THE PROCESS OF
   SUPPORTING VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS
   SOUTH PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WHILE
   DEVELOPING EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AS INFLOW
   BECOMES INCREASINGLY ROOTED IN A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.

   THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL APPEARS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT INITIALLY.
    EVENTUALLY...A GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
   OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO EVOLUTION OF AN INCREASINGLY
   ORGANIZED FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.  ALTHOUGH AMBIENT
   LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS MAY BE INITIALLY MODEST...AT LEAST SOME
   INTENSIFICATION DURING THE DAY...COUPLED WITH COLD POOL
   STRENGTHENING...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASING RISK FOR POTENTIALLY
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  GIVEN THE SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
   /CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F/...MESOVORTICES
   DEVELOPING ALONG THE GUST FRONT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR
   TORNADOES OR LOCALLY ENHANCED SURFACE GUSTS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS
   TOWARD THE ARKLATEX REGION AND SABINE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

   IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...ADDITIONAL
   STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION
   INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.  THIS SHOULD BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED IN
   NATURE...BUT MAY INCLUDE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.

   ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF AN INCREASINGLY BETTER DEFINED
   SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE MORE LIMITED THAN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS.  BUT...THE NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF A PLUME OF STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATELY LARGE
   CAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  STORMS MAY INITIATE FIRST NEAR THE
   DRYLINE...ON THE NOSE OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING  ACROSS NORTH
   CENTRAL KANSAS...WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   SUPERCELLS.  THEREAFTER...A MORE SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN STORM
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT...EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE
   MISSOURI VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO AWAIT BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED
   WITH IMPULSE PROGRESSING EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE.  THIS MAY NOT BE
   UNTIL THE 26/00-03Z TIME FRAME...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD STILL BE
   CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS...PERHAPS AN ORGANIZING
   STORM CLUSTER OR TWO.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A COUPLE
   OF TORNADOES ALL APPEAR POSSIBLE.

dimanche 24 mai 2015

Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones

SPC May 24, 2015 1300Z Thunderstorm Outlook

May 24, 2015 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0745 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

   VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST TX ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTHEAST OK...LA...AR...AND INTO SOUTHERN MO...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
   CO...THE TX PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN OK...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MS VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
   PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
   SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

   ...EAST TX INTO AR/MO...
   WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING PARTS OF EAST TX THIS
   MORNING.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN LATER THIS
   MORNING...BUT REMNANT MCVS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY
   REJUVENATE BY MID AFTERNOON AS THEY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS
   OF NORTHERN LA AND AR.  AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER
   THIS REGION...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS.  VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL
   GUIDANCE AGREES ON A MIXTURE OF DISCRETE AND LINEAR MODE STORMS
   LATER TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MO AND FAR WESTERN
   TN.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST
   STORMS.  HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SHEAR PROFILES
   WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN STORMS THAT CAN
   MAINTAIN DISCRETE MODE.

   ...SOUTHEAST CO INTO WESTERN OK...
   EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF
   EASTERN CO AND THE TX PANHANDLE.  THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE
   CONSIDERABLE DAYTIME HEATING...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW
   LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.  BY LATE AFTERNOON...FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MODERATE CAPE VALUES /OVER 1500 J/KG/...AND
   SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. 
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM
   SOUTHEAST CO INTO THE NORTHERN/EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...SPREADING INTO
   WESTERN OK THIS EVENING.  LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT IN
   THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

Attention....................www.estofex.org/

Hi everyone !for the past week you notice that I did took time to show some weather prediction outlook from Europe, http://www.estofex.org/.....CONNECTION_REFUSED.... This is not good ,if the 

European Storm Forecast Experiment,is for the public to view,what the point of this


please fill free send a Email...........Thank you!

samedi 16 mai 2015

Click map for watches

SPC May 16, 2015 1300Z Thunderstorm Outlook

Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

201505160809 PWO graphics
   ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
   WOUS40 KWNS 160808
   KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-161800-

   PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0308 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

   ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central and
   southern Plains today...

   * LOCATIONS...
     Western and central Kansas
     Western and central Oklahoma
     Southern Nebraska
     Northwest Texas

   * HAZARDS...
     Several tornadoes, a few intense
     Widespread large hail, some baseball size
     Scattered damaging winds

   * SUMMARY...
     An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected across the
     Plains states Saturday into Saturday night...from parts of
     Nebraska southward to Texas. Risks will include very large hail,
     damaging wind gusts, and several tornadoes -- with a few likely
     to be significant/long-lived.

   Preparedness actions...

   Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
   of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, 
   weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
   watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
   during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
   your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
   interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

   &&

   ..Broyles.. 05/16/2015

mardi 12 mai 2015

Convective Outlooks

This is tomorrow's forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.Tomorrow's Outlook
Current Day 2 Convective Outlook graphic and text
This is the day after tomorrow's (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.Day 3 Outlook
Current Day 3 Convective Outlook graphic
and text
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).Day 4-8 Outlook
Current Day 4-8 Convective Outlook graphic
and text

lundi 11 mai 2015

Continental Europe animation

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 11 May 2015 06:00 to Tue 12 May 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 11 May 2015 05:06
Forecaster: GATZEN
A level 1 was issued for southern Greece mainly for large hail and excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

High across south-west Europe ridges into Central Europe. Downstream, a deep trough affects eastern Europe. Embedded digging vort-max crosses the southern Balkan Peninsula and enters the east Mediterranean south of Greece. In the wake of the trough, a swath of cool air below 800 hPa affects a broad region from the Baltic Sea across Poland and western Ukraine into the Balkans. With increasing ridging from the west, the cool air is capped and deep lapse rates will be quite poor across eastern Europe. Additionally, low-level moisture is limited. Better chances for deep moist convection exist across the Balkans.

samedi 9 mai 2015

SPC Products Overview

May 9, 2015 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook



 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 AM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SE CO...SW KS AND A SMALL
   PART OF NW OK...

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS TO WRN OK AND THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TO
   N-CNTRL TX...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN
   GREAT PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
   STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE MOST PROBABLE CORRIDOR FOR TORNADOES AND
   VERY LARGE HAIL IS FROM EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO TO THE EASTERN TEXAS
   PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA FROM MID-AFTERNOON TO EARLY
   EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY SHOULD TRACK E TO
   THE SRN ROCKIES BY 10/00Z...BEFORE ADVANCING MORE SLOWLY NE OVER THE
   CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR TODAY OVER
   SE/E-CNTRL CO. A WARM FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP E OVER KS TODAY AND
   EVENTUALLY NE TOWARDS THE MID-MO VALLEY TONIGHT. DRYLINE WILL MIX E
   OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BUT ITS ADVANCEMENT SHOULD BE SLOWED BY
   MORNING CONVECTION. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/CURRENT EFFECTIVE FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY FROM N-CNTRL TX TO THE PERMIAN BASIN WILL ATTEMPT TO
   ADVANCE N BUT MAY BE STUNTED BY MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE TONIGHT.

   ...CNTRL/SRN GREAT PLAINS...
   ANOTHER MESSY/COMPLEX FORECAST AS EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING
   OCCURRED ON FRI AND MORNING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING.
   CONVECTIVELY PARAMETRIZED GUIDANCE APPEARS LIKELY TO BE TOO UNSTABLE
   IN THE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR N OF THE LARGE-SCALE CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY FROM N-CNTRL TX TO THE PERMIAN BASIN.
   WHILE A HIGHER-END SCENARIO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TODAY...BUST
   POTENTIAL IS ALSO APPARENT. FOR THIS OUTLOOK...WILL FOCUS ON TWO
   CORRIDORS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SEVERE POTENTIAL WITHIN A BROADER
   ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK.

   TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS MORNING IN BETWEEN ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER
   ERN CO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BECOME
   PRONOUNCED AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA INCREASE AND ROBUST
   LOW-LEVEL WAA OCCURS ATOP THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW IN W TX. ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THESE EARLY-DAY STORMS.
   SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY IN CONCERT WITH THE DIURNAL
   HEATING CYCLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CURRENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS
   IT ATTEMPTS TO ADVANCE N OVER N TX AND OK. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
   WOULD FAVOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS...BUT LIKELY MESSY CONVECTIVE MODE
   AND LACK OF STRONG DIABATIC HEATING SUGGESTS THE OVERALL RISK MAY BE
   LIMITED.

   STEEPEST TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIE THIS AFTERNOON FROM
   E-CNTRL CO TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. BENEATH AND N OF AN INTENSE
   MID-LEVEL JET /AROUND 75 KT AT 500 MB/ CURLING FROM THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS TO WRN KS...WIND PROFILES WOULD SEEMINGLY BE FAVORABLE FOR
   SEVERAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND A RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT-SIZED LARGE
   HAIL AND TORNADOES. BUT VEER-BACK SIGNATURES ARE EVIDENT IN FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS GIVEN THE RELATIVELY MERIDIONAL WIND PROFILE. ALONG WITH
   CONCERNS OVER THE DEGREE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND DIABATIC
   HEATING...WILL REFRAIN FROM MODERATE-RISK TYPE TORNADO PROBABILITIES
   THIS OUTLOOK. SOME CONSOLIDATION OF LATE DAY CONVECTION INTO AN MCS
   ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL KS APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. THE RISK FOR SEVERE
   WINDS MAY INCREASE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT ENHANCED
   PROBABILITIES GIVEN CONCERNS OVER THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WITH ERN
   EXTENT THIS EVENING.

   FARTHER S FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TO N-CNTRL TX...AN EXPANDING
   CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT
   IMPINGES ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE PERSISTENT MARITIME TROPICAL
   AIR. CONVECTION SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN ANAFRONTAL GIVEN THE
   ORIENTATION OF DEEP SHEAR/ASCENT RELATIVE TO THE FRONT. LARGE
   BUOYANCY AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD FOSTER ELEVATED SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. WITH MULTIPLE EPISODES OF
   SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AND TONIGHT...HAVE
   MAINTAINED/INCREASED AREAL EXTENT OF THE ENHANCED RISK.

SPC May 9, 2015 0600Z Thunderstorm Outlook

Current Convective Watches

Valid WW Image

Current Mesoscale Discussions

Valid MD Image