jeudi 22 mai 2014

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 23 May 2014 06:00 to Sat 24 May 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 22 May 2014 21:20
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 1 was issued for E/SE Germany, W-Poland the Czech Republic and parts of Austria mainly for large hail (an isolated very large hail event can't be excluded), strong to isolated severe wind gusts, excessive rain and an isolated tornado event.

A level 1 was issued for SE-Norway and SW Sweden mainly for an isolated large hail event.

A level 1 was issued for CNTRL UK mainly for an isolated tornado event.

A level 1 was issued for parts of France, Belgium, far W-Germany and Luxembourg mainly for an isolated large hail and strong wind gusts event. A tornado or two are possible.

A level 1 was issued for parts of Italy, Slovenia and Croatia mainly for large hail (an isolated very large hail event is possible) and strong to severe wind gusts. Excessive rain accompanies storm clusters over N-Italy.

A level 1 was issued for parts of N-Tunisia mainly for an isolated large hail event.

A level 1 was issued for parts of SW-Turkey mainly for an isolated large hail event.

SYNOPSIS

The rotation center of a big cyclonic vortex remains just offshore of SW UK . Numerous impulses within its periphery affect NW Europe with the strongest one crossing France during the day from SW to NE. Another upper low is situated over SE Europe with weak ridging in between.

At lower levels, a pronounced front bisects Europe with cool and modified marine air to its west and warm/moist air to its east. This front moves leisurely to the east and becomes quasi-stationary during the overnight hours roughly from Sweden to E-Austria to Sicily. Another Atlantic front affects W/NW France with enhanced thunderstorm chances.

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