Mesoscale Discussion 465

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0465 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX INCLUDING TX BIG COUNTRY INTO SOUTHERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 261555Z - 261800Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX...AND EVENTUALLY REACH PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY ELEVATED STORMS COULD POSE A HAIL RISK LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OTHERWISE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEED FOR A WATCH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE BANDS OF INITIALLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX BIG COUNTRY SINCE MID-MORNING GENERALLY NEAR THE ABILENE AREA AS OF 1530Z. THIS GENERAL INCREASE SEEMS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THAT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD-SHIFTING IMPLIED INCREASING FORCING-FOR-ASCENT IS READILY APPARENT INTO WEST TX PER MORNING IR/WV SATELLITE TRENDS. SEVERE HAIL MAY BE THE INITIAL RISK LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AS MIDDLE/UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO STEADILY STREAM NORTHWARD WITHIN A BROADENING MOIST SECTOR...DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INCREASINGLY CONNECT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE-BASED STORMS BECOMING AN INCREASING CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX. ACCORDINGLY...ISOLATED TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD ALSO INCREASE.