First Major Storm of February?

First Major Storm of February?

1/28/2012 -- 6.2 north of New Zealand -- MASSIVE amount of 5.0M earthquakes this week

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IThRINLKrmw

Water Spout - West Coast Singapore

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jqzy4IhZ4C0                                                                                       http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8zA5BvQZVQ                                                                                       

Water Spout - West Keppel Fairway Singapore

 

Dust Devil in Bulgaria.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D8o-fOWTbzc

Flying into heavy rain - cockpit view

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TdRPMHbVhVQ

bad weather storm maersk idaho.MOV

north atlantic storm BOAT   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOZNaB-2l0M

Storm Chase: Central Coast - January 28th, 2012

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUcMUQdnrrA

Adelaide Storm 28 JAN 2012 (((South Australia)))

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUJ3hL5DYuI

Today's weather forecast for Ukraine

http://www.tryukraine.com/info/weather.shtml

Public Weather Warnings for Canada

http://weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/warnings_e.html

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/outlook_tab.php

http://www.iris.edu/seismon/

Tropical Cyclone Funso (2012), Animation

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-jWU7In2VQ

Category 1 Hurricane Iggy

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS IGGY PM UPDATE 28 JAN.mp4

http://www.meteoalarm.eu/

Meteoalarm==alerting europe for extreme weather

http://www.estofex.org/

European Storm Forecast Experiment

http://www.essl.org/cgi-bin/eswd/eswd.cgi

European Severe Weather Database

Tornado Storm Report

2012-01-27 05:45:00 EST

Lat/Lon: 27.00,-82.02

Location: Charlotte

EF-1 tornado touched down and caused significant roof damage to a single family home and an apartment complex. Additional minor roof damage was sustained at two adjacen (tbw)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/outlook_tab.php

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

 

Storm capable of producing a tornado Tornado Vortex Signature (DGX_U3)

ID:	U3
Location:	Copiah
Max:	61 dBZ
Top:	32,000 ft.
VIL:	42 kg/m²
Chance of Severe Hail:	10%
Chance of Hail:	90%
Max Hail Size:	0.50 in.
Speed:	25 knots
Direction (from):	SW (233)

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?product=NCR&rid=DGX&loop=yes

NWS radar Loop from Brandon/Jackson, MS

tornado warning!!!

655 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2012 

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a 

* Tornado Warning for... 
southeastern Copiah County in central Mississippi... 
Simpson County in central Mississippi... 
this includes the cities of...Pinola...Mendenhall...

* until 745 PM CST 

* at 655 PM CST...National Weather Service meteorologists detected a 
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near Rockport 
moving northeast at 35 mph. 

* Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to 
Shivers...Union and Harrisville 

tornado warning!!!

624 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2012 

...A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 700 PM CST for eastern 
Lincoln County... 

At 624 PM CST...National Weather Service meteorologists continue to 
track a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This 
tornado was located near Enterprise moving northeast at 30 mph. 

Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to 
Brookhaven 

Precautionary/preparedness actions... 

A Tornado Warning means that a tornado is occurring or imminent. You 
should activate your tornado action plan and take protective action now. 

http://www.severestudios.com/livechase

Live Storm Chase Video NetworkSTORM CHASERS LIVE NOW:Vincent Webb

http://www.srh.weather.gov/jan/

CAUTION

A Tornado Watch is currently in effect for portions of the Area. Please click for more details

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/outlook_tab.php

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

1/22/12 - Arkansas Severe Weather Outbreak

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uk0Ydvk1Fe8

http://www.weather.com/weather/videos/news-41/top-stories-169/storms-kill-at-least-two-injures-100-25795#loc=41/169/25788

Feeling blessed despite tornado

http://www.weather.com/weather/videos/news-41/top-stories-169/storms-kill-at-least-two-injures-100-25795#loc=41/169/25799

Deadly tornadoes move across South

http://chase.tornadovideos.net/pages/full_screen

live storm chasing now!.tornadovideos.net

http://www.severestudios.com/livechase

STORM CHASERS LIVE NOW:Vincent Webb,Andy Gabrielson,Brett Wicker

Tornado Storm Report

2012-01-22 21:38:00 EST

Lat/Lon: 34.30,-91.42

Location: Arkansas

Tornado reported on the ground 1 mile west of Burks. (Lzk)                                                             2012-01-22 21:33:00 EST

Lat/Lon: 34.33,-91.39

Location: Arkansas

Tornado reported on the ground by storm chasers 4 miles northwest of De Witt. (Lzk)

Memphis, TN Radar

tornado warning!!!

827 PM CST sun Jan 22 2012 

The National Weather Service in Little Rock has issued a 

* Tornado Warning for... 
southeastern Monroe County in eastern Arkansas... 
east central Jefferson County in southeast Arkansas... 
northern Arkansas County in southeast Arkansas... 

* until 915 PM CST 

* at 822 PM CST...National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a 
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This severe 
storm has a history of producing tornadoes and large hail. This 
storm was located 5 miles north of English Lake...or 18 miles south 
of Stuttgart. Doppler radar showed this severe storm moving 
northeast at 50 mph. In addition to the tornado...this storm is 

Storm capable of producing a tornado Tornado Vortex Signature (LZK_U7)

ID:	U7
Location:	Monroe
Max:	65 dBZ
Top:	35,000 ft.
VIL:	53 kg/m²
Chance of Severe Hail:	100%
Chance of Hail:	100%
Max Hail Size:	2.25 in.
Speed:	45 knots
Direction (from):	SW (236)

Tornado Storm Report

2012-01-22 20:59:00 EST

Lat/Lon: 34.68,-91.58

Location: Prairie

Amateur radio operator reports a tornado on the ground 2 miles north of Slovak. (Lzk)

tornado warning!!!

811 PM CST sun Jan 22 2012 

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a 

* Tornado Warning for... 
northwestern Lee County in eastern Arkansas...
western St. Francis County in eastern Arkansas... 

* until 900 PM CST 

* at 810 PM CST...trained weather spotters reported a tornado 19 
miles west of garret Grove...or near De Valls Bluff...moving 
northeast at 50 mph. 

* Locations in the warning include but are not limited to Forrest 
City...Madison and Palestine. 

tornado warning!!!

802 PM CST sun Jan 22 2012 

The National Weather Service in Little Rock has issued a 

* Tornado Warning for... 
northwestern Lincoln County in southeast Arkansas... 
southeastern Jefferson County in southeast Arkansas... 
western Arkansas County in southeast Arkansas... 

* until 830 PM CST 

* at 759 PM CST...National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated 
a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This storm 
has a history of producing tornadoes and large hail. This severe
storm was located 6 miles southwest of Cottondale...or 8 miles 
southeast of Pine Bluff. Doppler radar showed this severe storm
moving northeast at 65 mph. In addition to the tornado...this 

Storm capable of producing a tornado Tornado Vortex Signature (LZK_U7)

ID:	U7
Location:	Prairie
Max:	63 dBZ
Top:	32,000 ft.
VIL:	59 kg/m²
Chance of Severe Hail:	90%
Chance of Hail:	100%
Max Hail Size:	1.75 in.
Speed:	47 knots
Direction (from):	SW (235)

tornado warning!!!

800 PM CST sun Jan 22 2012 

...A Tornado Warning remains in effect for south central Woodruff... 
southern prairie and northern Monroe counties until 830 PM CST... 

At 759 PM CST...trained weather spotters reported a tornado. This 
tornado was located 6 miles southwest of De Valls Bluff...or 2 miles 
north of Slovak...moving northeast at 50 mph. In addition to the 
tornado...this storm is capable of producing large damaging hail up 
to Golf Ball size. 

* Locations in or near the path of this tornado include... 
Hazen... De Valls Bluff... Clarendon... 
Brinkley... Peppers Landing... Hallsville... 
Dobbs Landing... Biscoe... Allendale... 
Alfrey... Zent... Tollville... 
Slovak... Monroe... Keevil... 

Tornado Storm Report

2012-01-22 20:26:00 EST

Lat/Lon: 33.86,-92.36

Location: Cleveland

Damage reported on the north side of Fordyce. Law enforcement reports houses damaged and trees down. (Lzk)

tornado warning!!!

755 PM CST sun Jan 22 2012 

The National Weather Service in Little Rock has issued a 

* Tornado Warning for... 
south central Woodruff County in eastern Arkansas... 
southern Prairie County in central Arkansas... 
northern Monroe County in eastern Arkansas... 

* until 830 PM CST 

* at 750 PM CST...National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a 
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This severe 
storm was located 5 miles east of Parkers Corner...or 10 miles 
south of Hazen. Doppler radar showed this severe storm moving 
northeast at 50 mph. In addition to the tornado...this storm is capable of producing large damaging hail up to Golf Ball size. 

tornado warning!!!

739 PM CST sun Jan 22 2012 

...A Tornado Warning remains in effect for west central Lincoln... 
southwestern Jefferson and northern Cleveland counties until 815 PM 
CST... 

...Tornado emergency for the warned area... 

At 736 PM CST...storm spotters and National Weather Service 
meteorologists were tracking a confirmed tornado with reports of 
damage in Fordyce. This potentially deadly tornado was located 4 miles 
southeast of Grays Lake...moving northeast at 55 mph. In addition to 
the tornado...this storm is capable of producing large damaging hail 
up to Golf Ball size. 

* Locations in or near the path of this tornado include... 
Rison... Grays Lake... Toledo... 

tornado warning!!!

748 PM CST sun Jan 22 2012 

The National Weather Service in Little Rock has issued a 

* Tornado Warning for... 
extreme southeastern Pulaski County in central Arkansas... 
south central Prairie County in central Arkansas... 
southern Lonoke County in central Arkansas... 
northwestern Jefferson County in southeast Arkansas... 
northwestern Arkansas County in southeast Arkansas... 

* until 815 PM CST 

* at 745 PM CST...National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a 
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This severe 
storm was located 3 miles southwest of Hensley Island...or 14 miles 
northwest of Pine Bluff. Doppler radar showed this severe storm 

Storm capable of producing a tornado Tornado Vortex Signature (LZK_U7)

ID:	U7
Location:	Lonoke
Max:	65 dBZ
Top:	28,000 ft.
VIL:	50 kg/m²
Chance of Severe Hail:	100%
Chance of Hail:	100%
Max Hail Size:	2.00 in.
Speed:	0 knots
Direction (from):	new (0)

tornado warning!!!

tornado warning!!!

730 PM CST sun Jan 22 2012 

...A Tornado Warning remains in effect for west central Lincoln... 
southwestern Jefferson...southeastern Dallas and northern Cleveland 
counties until 815 PM CST... 

At 727 PM CST...National Weather Service Doppler radar was tracking a 
confirmed tornado. This tornado was located 4 miles northeast of 
Fordyce...moving northeast at 55 mph. In addition to the 
tornado...this storm is capable of producing large damaging hail up 
to Golf Ball size. 

* Locations in or near the path of this tornado include... 
Rison... Grays Lake... Toledo... 
Nebo... Kingsland... Kedron... 
Feenyville... Yorktown... Tarry... Randall... Pinebergen... Ladd... 

tornado warning!!!

729 PM CST sun Jan 22 2012 

The National Weather Service in Little Rock has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
southern Prairie County in central Arkansas...
west central Monroe County in eastern Arkansas...
southern Lonoke County in central Arkansas...
north central Jefferson County in southeast Arkansas...
northwestern Arkansas County in southeast Arkansas...

* until 800 PM CST

* at 727 PM CST...National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This severe
storm was located 4 miles south of England...or 20 miles north of
Pine Bluff. Doppler radar showed this severe storm moving northeast 

(read more)

tornado warning!!!

636 PM CST sun Jan 22 2012 

The National Weather Service in Little Rock has issued a 

* Tornado Warning for... 
west central Jefferson County in southeast Arkansas... 
southeastern Hot Spring County in southwest Arkansas... 
Grant County in central Arkansas... 
northern Dallas County in southwest Arkansas... 

* until 700 PM CST 

* at 632 PM CST...National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a 
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This severe 
storm was located 11 miles southwest of Leola...or 18 miles east of 
Arkadelphia. Doppler radar showed this severe storm moving 
northeast at 55 mph. In addition to the tornado...this storm is 

tornado warning!!!

635 PM CST sun Jan 22 2012 

The National Weather Service in Little Rock has issued a 

* Tornado Warning for... 
northern Ouachita County in southwest Arkansas... 
south central Dallas County in southwest Arkansas... 
northwestern Calhoun County in southwest Arkansas... 

* until 715 PM CST 

* at 632 PM CST...National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a 
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This severe 
storm was located 7 miles south of White Oak Lake...or 13 miles 
west of Camden. Doppler radar showed this severe storm moving 
northeast at 70 mph. In addition to the tornado...this storm is 
capable of producing large damaging hail up to Golf Ball size. 

Storm capable of producing a tornado Tornado Vortex Signature (LZK_L0)

ID:	L0
Location:	White
Max:	66 dBZ
Top:	35,000 ft.
VIL:	52 kg/m²
Chance of Severe Hail:	90%
Chance of Hail:	100%
Max Hail Size:	2.00 in.
Speed:	45 knots
Direction (from):	SW (229)

Storm capable of producing a tornado Tornado Vortex Signature (LZK_L0)

ID:	L0
Location:	White
Max:	67 dBZ
Top:	31,000 ft.
VIL:	50 kg/m²
Chance of Severe Hail:	100%
Chance of Hail:	100%
Max Hail Size:	2.25 in.
Speed:	47 knots
Direction (from):	SW (228)

Do you have a picture of this storm?

Storm capable of producing a tornado Tornado Vortex Signature (OHX_K0)

ID:	K0
Location:	Davidson
Max:	54 dBZ
Top:	7,000 ft.
VIL:	12 kg/m²
Chance of Severe Hail:	0%
Chance of Hail:	0%
Max Hail Size:	0.00 in.
Speed:	51 knots
Direction (from):	SW (216)

Little Rock, AR Radar

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0005.html(((tornado watch)))

Public (Test) | Counties | Probabilities | Aviation | Warnings | Initial RADAR

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes Likelihood High Moderate Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind High Moderate Severe Hail 2"+ Hail Moderate Moderate Note:  The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended. Note: Click for Watch Status Reports. SEL5 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 5 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 520 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI WESTERN TENNESSEE EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 520 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER... THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF GREENVILLE MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN AR AS THE LOW LEVELS DESTABILIZE AND ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM W TO E...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN OK. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASES THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS NE AR/WRN TN...AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN BAND WITH BOTH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS. VERTICAL SHEAR...MOISTURE...AND THE MIXED STORM MODES WILL FAVOR A RISK OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045. ...THOMPSON

Storm capable of producing a tornado Tornado Vortex Signature (LZK_D2)

ID:	D2
Location:	Saline
Max:	52 dBZ
Top:	6,000 ft.
VIL:	6 kg/m²
Chance of Severe Hail:	0%
Chance of Hail:	0%
Max Hail Size:	0.00 in.
Speed:	0 knots
Direction (from):	new (0)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/(((Includes risk of tornadoes))).

BREAKING

Severe Storms Possible Late Afternoon Through Monday Morning

http://www.severestudios.com/livechase

STORM CHASERS LIVE NOW:Vincent Webb in Mississippi

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=meg(((TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL))))

• Severe

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH. A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL UNFOLD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...REACHING THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. THE GREATEST TORNADO RISK AREA INCLUDES THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA... AND THE EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI DELTA.

Live now on http://chase.tornadovideos.net/pages/full_screen

see it live! on Tornado Video net,(((Live video)))

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/

DANGER

Widespread Severe Thunderstorms Expected This Evening and Overnight; Strong Tornadoes Possible

Tornado Safety NOAA

Tornado Safety

Take cover in a sturdy building.

 The best place in a house/building is on the lowest floor and in an interior room. Basements, storm shelters, hallways, closets and bathrooms are great locations to go! Any room that is AWAY from windows!

 Protect your head from flying debris. Blankets, pillows, sports/bike helmets, mattresses, cooking pots are all good things to use to protect your head, other than your hands.

 Mobile homes are not safe shelters. Find a neighbor or friend to stay with in a sturdier structure. For a last resort, take shelter in a ditch.

 Never outrun a tornado in a vehicle. Get out of the car and into a sturdy building. If none is around, lay flat in a ditch.

 Highway overpasses are not safe shelters. Winds speed up as they funnel underneath the overpass creating a danger to those underneath, as well as debris flying around.

 Make sure to have a NOAA Weather Radio with fresh batteries handy. Many times, severe weather can come through during the night or times when we least expect it. NOAA Weather Radio will alert you when a warning has been issued for your county.

http://www.weather.com/weather/videos/news-41/top-stories-169/winter-weather-update-22595#loc=40/165/365

Strong storms for South and West  Some severe storms are possible Sunday in the lower Mississippi Valley, TN Valley and along the central Gulf coast. Another round of heavy rain is expected from northern California through western Washington continuing the threat of flooding

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.mp4((Copy and click,new page)))

NOAA Storm Prediction Center Web Briefing,Sunday January 22,2012...Important listen now!!!http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.mp4

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Public Severe Weather Outlook
The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower mississippi...lower ohio...and tennessee valleys late this afternoon through early monday....   Please read the latest public statement about this event. Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. (More Info)  Forecast Discussion SPC AC 221311 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0711 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF AR...MS...AND AL NWD THROUGH SE MO...WRN TN...AND WRN KY INTO SRN IL AND SRN IND...... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA FROM THE CNTRL GULF CST NEWD INTO PARTS OF OH...... ...SYNOPSIS... ...A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM THE LWR MS VLY NEWD INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS...TN...AND LWR OH VLYS THIS EVE THROUGH EARLY MON... POTENT UPR TROUGH NOW OVER THE CNTRL/SRN RCKYS WILL MOVE E INTO ERN KS/OK THIS EVE...BEFORE ASSUMING A NEGATIVE TILT AND ACCELERATING ENE ACROSS THE MID MS...LWR OH...AND TN VLYS TNGT AND EARLY MON. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK E ACROSS KS TODAY...BEFORE TURNING NE ACROSS NRN MO AND IA TNGT...AND INTO WI EARLY MON. AHEAD OF THE LOW AND TROUGH...SATELLITE AND VWP DATA ATTM SHOW BROAD 50+ KT SSWLY LLJ EXPANDING NWD ACROSS ERN PARTS OF THE PLNS. THIS JET WILL EXPAND FARTHER E ACROSS THE MID MS AND TN VLYS TODAY...WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING ATOP SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED LAYER OF COLD AIR OVER THE REGION. STRONG TSTMS SHOULD FORM LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY THIS EVE FROM IL SSW INTO PARTS OF MO/AR AND LA...ALONG LEAD COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD FROM THE LOW. GIVEN VERY STRONG WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR TROUGH AND INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DMGG WIND AND HAIL AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP E AND NE ACROSS THE TN AND LWR OH VLYS THROUGH 12Z MON. ...LWR MS VLY NWD AND EWD INTO THE TN AND LWR OH VLYS LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY MON... SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S F SHOULD EXTEND NWD TO THE MO BOOTHEEL BY LATE TODAY GIVEN STRONG/PERSISTENT LOW LVL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. COUPLED WITH MODEST SFC HEATING...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT WILL REACH SSWWD ACROSS ERN/SRN AR INTO MS/LA. TSTMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE NW EDGE OF THIS INSTABILITY AXIS LATE THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD QUICKLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE NWD AND SWD AS LEAD SFC COLD FRONT OVERTAKES MOIST AXIS AND CONTINUES EWD. WITH TIME...AN EXTENSIVE SQLN SHOULD EVOLVE FROM THE LWR OH VLY SSW INTO AR/NW MS/LA. 70 TO 90 KT MID LVL JET OVERSPREADING REGION SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS. LOW LVL SRH SHOULD MAXIMIZE OVER PARTS OF AR...SE MO...WRN TN AND NRN MS...ON SRN FRINGE OF RETREATING SHALLOW COOL AIR LAYER. GIVEN COMPARATIVELY GREATER SFC-BASED INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STRONG TORNADOES....ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MON E/SE INTO PARTS OF ERN MS AND AL AS EXISTING STORMS AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD ENCOUNTER MORE SLOWLY-RETREATING PART OF WEDGE AIR MASS IN THAT REGION. FARTHER N...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SVR THREAT SHOULD BE DMGG WINDS AS THE DEVELOPING SQLN AND TURBULENT MIXING ENCOURAGE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF STRONG LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO THE SFC...EVEN IN REGIONS OF NEAR-ZERO SFC-BASED CAPE. THIS THREAT MAY CONTINUE...AT LEAST ON A SPORADIC BASIS...NWD AND EWD INTO PARTS OF OH AND TO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS EARLY MON. IN THE MEAN TIME...A CONDITIONAL RISK WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS OVER PARTS OF AL AND WRN GA TODAY...WHERE SFC HEATING AND ASCENT WITH WEAK LEAD UPR IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT SCTD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ENVIRONMENT MAY PROVE FAVORABLY MOIST...UNSTABLE...AND SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED TO POSE A THREAT FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO.