lundi 20 octobre 2014

Continental Europe animation

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 21 Oct 2014 06:00 to Wed 22 Oct 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 20 Oct 2014 22:47
Forecaster: PISTOTNIK
A level 1 and level 2 were issued for SE England, BeNeLux, N and E France, Switzerland, central and S Germany, the Czech Republic and Austria mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.

A level 1 and level 2 were issued for NE Italy, the N Adriatic Sea, Slovenia, the N parts of Croatia, Bosnia-Hercegovina and Serbia, and the W parts of Hungary and Slovakia mainly for severe wind gusts and tornadoes, and to a lesser extent for excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued from Scotland into NW Germany mainly for severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

A strong zonal flow is present across Europe. A first cyclone tracks eastward into Russia and brings wintry conditions into Scandinavia and northeastern Europe in its wake. Behind a transient and progressive ridge over central Europe, the next cyclone (ex-hurricane "Gonzalo") moves from Scotland towards Denmark, and a new trough ejects from the British Isles into central Europe.
Quiescent conditions prevail over southwestern and southern Europe, apart from quickly increasing Mistral and Tramontana winds over the western Mediterranean Sea at the rear flank of the amplifying central European trough.

samedi 18 octobre 2014

Canadian Hurricane Current Conditions

Hurricane Track Information


European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 18 Oct 2014 06:00 to Sun 19 Oct 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 17 Oct 2014 14:26
Forecaster: PISTOTNIK
A level 1 was issued for Ireland, Ulster and W Scotland for tornadoes and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

A pronounced long-wave ridge builds over Central Europe with an axis from Algeria to Sweden. It is flanked by two long-wave troughs which sit over the eastern Atlantic Ocean and amplify over far-eastern Europe into Turkey, respectively. At the surface, a filling sub-970-hPa cyclone to the northwest of Ireland and a building 1025 hPa anticyclone centered over Belarus are the corresponding pressure features.
Strong warm air advection spreads into southwestern and central Europe, while polar air rushes southward over far-eastern Europe. Cooler, drier air from the north also pushes the reservoir of plentiful CAPE over the eastern Mediterranean Sea out of our forecast domain.

vendredi 17 octobre 2014

Hurricane Gonzalo -- Bermuda -- Oct 17th, 2014

Live coverage of Hurricane Gonzalo

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 17 Oct 2014 06:00 to Sat 18 Oct 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 16 Oct 2014 21:31
Forecaster: BEYER
A level 1 was issued for Ireland and Western Scotland mainly for severe wind gusts and tornados.

SYNOPSIS

A zonal flow is present over most parts of Europa at the beginning of the forecast period. Two main troughs can be found. One of them is influencing eastern parts of Europe and Western Russia. A second trough is present over the eastern North Atlantic influencing Portugal and Great Britain. In between an initially weak ridge can be found that is overrun by several short wave features.

In the course of the forecast period the western trough is considerably increasing its amplitude. As a consequence the ridge over central Europe is strengthening and a strong southwesterly flow develops advecting unusually warm airmasses into most parts of Western Europe with 850 hPa temperatures clearly in excess of 10 degree C.

Rather humid airmasses are still present over the Mediterranean. With a more or less westerly flow they are advected onshore on the western coastlines. 

mercredi 15 octobre 2014

Tropical Storm Ana




Hurricane Gonzalo




European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 15 Oct 2014 06:00 to Thu 16 Oct 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 14 Oct 2014 20:41
Forecaster: PUCIK
A level 1 was issued for Portugal mainly for excessive precipitation.

A level 2 was issued for parts of central Italy and the Adriatics mainly for large to very large hail, excessive precipitation and to the lesser degree for tornadoes and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 surrounding level 2s was issued mainly for excessive precipitation, large hail and to the lesser degree for tornadoes and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for SW Hungary and E Croatia mainly for marginally large hail and marginally severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

Satellite loops reveal major low pressure system centered over the Atlantic, which will further reinforce WAA over much of Europe in the following days. Beyond this low, situation over Europe is quite diverse with numerous disturbances embedded in the zonal flow.

Quite active pattern will continue especially over the Mediterranean, namely Italy and the Adriatics, where soundings reveal presence of steep lapse rates and at the same time, moderate to strong vertical wind shear. 

lundi 13 octobre 2014

Watches: Tornado in red Severe T-storm in blue

Click map for watches

Oct 13, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LA...AR...SE
   MO...NW MS...WRN TN...WRN KY AND FAR SRN IL...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
   PLAINS...OZARKS...LOWER MS VALLEY...MID MS VALLEY...CNTRL GULF COAST
   STATES...TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
   TONIGHT FROM EAST TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...OHIO VALLEY AND GULF
   COAST STATES. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...SOME TORNADOES AND HAIL
   WILL LIKELY OCCUR.

   ...LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...
   AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
   TODAY AS A 65 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND MOVES ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND OZARKS. AT THE
   SFC...A LOW WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS MO AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES
   QUICKLY EWD ACROSS ERN OK AND EAST TX. A SQUALL-LINE WILL BE ONGOING
   AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM SW MO SWD ACROSS
   WRN AR AND EXTENDING SWWD INTO NE TX. THIS SQUALL-LINE WILL MOVE
   QUICKLY EWD INTO THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY TODAY RESULTING IN
   WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.

   AHEAD OF THE SQUALL-LINE...A WELL-DEVELOPED 50 TO 65 KT LOW-LEVEL
   JET WILL HELP REINFORCE A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING
   NWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF AR INTO SERN MO THIS MORNING. SFC
   DEWPOINTS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
   60S F ALLOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SRN
   AND ERN AR THIS MORNING. WARMING SFC TEMPS DURING THE DAY AND
   INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ENABLE THE SQUALL-LINE TO
   GRADUALLY INTENSIFY PRODUCING A WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THREAT. A
   POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF GREATER THAN 65 KNOTS WILL EXIST THIS
   MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LINE MOVES ACROSS THE MODERATE
   RISK AREA. TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH ROTATING CELLS EMBEDDED IN
   THE LINE. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS ERN
   AR...NW MS AND FAR WRN TN LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS
   SFC TEMPS WARM AND THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL JETS BECOME COUPLED AHEAD
   OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE MODERATE RISK
   AREA IS DRIVEN BY WIND...A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED
   OUT WITH SUPERCELLS THAT CAN FORM IN OR AHEAD OF THE LINE. 

   ...LOWER OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES...
   SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE LOWER OH
   VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES REGION AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES NEWD
   AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL BE
   SSELY...HELPING TO REINFORCE A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   LOCATED FROM THE MID MS VALLEY NNEWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION
   WHERE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AROUND MIDDAY. NAM FORECASTS SUGGEST
   THAT SBCAPE COULD REACH THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE AS FAR NORTH AS
   CNTRL INDIANA. ALTHOUGH A SQUALL-LINE WILL MOVE INTO WRN PARTS OF
   THE REGION THIS MORNING...SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
   WELL AHEAD OF THE LINE AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. 

   FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT SPRINGFIELD IL AND INDIANAPOLIS AT 18Z SHOW 40
   KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7.0
   C/KM. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER
   MULTICELLS THIS MORNING. AS A SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
   THIS AFTERNOON...THE NRN END OF A SQUALL-LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
   INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE
   THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 65 KT
   POSSIBLE.

   ...GULF COAST...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AS A
   COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY EWD INTO CNTRL AND ERN TX. A SQUALL-LINE
   WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS ECNTRL TX AT THE
   START OF THE PERIOD WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING EWD INTO LA THIS
   AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BATON ROUGE AT 18Z SHOW SFC
   DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F...MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG AND 45 KT OF 0-6 KM
   SHEAR. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH BOWING LINE
   SEGMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE SQUALL-LINE. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY...HAIL
   WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE PARTS OF THE LINE.
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER WITH NWD EXTENT MAKING THE GREATEST
   WIND DAMAGE THREAT ACROSS NRN PARTS OF THE REGION FROM CNTRL AND NRN
   LA EWD INTO CNTRL MS.

Continental Europe animation

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 13 Oct 2014 06:00 to Tue 14 Oct 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 12 Oct 2014 23:09
Forecaster: PUCIK
A level 1 was issued for W Iberia mainly for excessive precipitation.

A level 2 was issued for the Ligurian Sea and parts of N Italy mainly for excessive rain, (very) large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

A level 1, surrounding Level 2, was issued for excessive rain, severe wind gusts and large hail.

A level 1 was issued for S France mainly for excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for NW Germany mainly for severe wind gusts and marginally large hail, to the lesser degree for tornadoes.



SYNOPSIS

Major macrosynoptic feature will remain in the form of a large trough over the Atlantic. Several short-wave troughs are associated with it, rotating around. Strong southwesterly flow on its forward flank is forecast to decrease during the forecast period. Towards east, a ridge will stretch from Tunisia towards S Poland. A cut-off low is situated over Turkey, slowly filling in.

DISCUSSION

... W Iberia ...

A sharp short-wave will drop towards Iberia during the forecast period, located at the left exit region of 70 m/s jet-streak. In the warm sector of the associated frontal system, models simulate marginal latent instability, linked to the tongue of moister airmass. Significant forcing from the trough, along with the coastal and orographic uplift will provide for a likely heavy precipitation event over a large area. Convection may well contribute to the resultant rain sums, especially close to the coastline with possibility of training event. Lvl 1 is thus warranted for excessive precipitation. A band of heavy precip will translate SE-wards during the day.

... Ligurian Sea, N Italy ...

Ahead of the approaching short-wave trough, 20-25 m/s of S to SW 500 hPa flow is simulated by the models, decreasing during the second half of the forecast period. Southerly flow closer to the surface will continue advecting very moist airmass, with coastal Td readings above 20 deg C. Especially over the sea, moderate to high CAPE values are simulated with a tongue of instability reaching directly into the Gulf of Genoa. Very pronounced overlap of high latent instability and moderate to strong vertical wind shear is forecast over the Ligurian Sea and associated coastlines. As such, well organised DMC, including supercells, will be possible, with threats of (very) large hail, damaging wind gusts and even tornadoes (due to the enhanced LLS). However, it still seems that the dominant threat will be excessive precipitation. With abundant low level convergence, large MCS will be likely with training pattern near the coasts. Lvl 2 is introduced for an area, where the combination of all mentioned threats will be present. MCS may be already ongoing in the beggining of the forecast period, shifting E and SEwards during the forecast period.

... NW Germany ...

A plume of moderately steep lapse rates (around 7 K/km in the 800-600 hPa layer) will be advected from the south, contributing to the development of CAPE values on the order of hundreds J/kg. Presence of 500 hPa flow around 20 m/s will contribute to the DLS values between 15-25 m/s, conducive for well-organised DMC. Scattered DMC is forecast to initiate south of the advancing warm front, while some of the cells may attain supercellular characteristics. In that case, severe wind gusts as well as marginally large hail may occur. Tornado threat is not discounted either, but LLS should be rather limited (values at or mostly below 10 m/s). The highest threat will exist between 12 and 15 UTC.

Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones

vendredi 10 octobre 2014

Convective Outlooks

This is today's forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.Today's Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook graphic and text
This is tomorrow's forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.Tomorrow's Outlook
Current Day 2 Convective Outlook graphic and text
This is the day after tomorrow's (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.Day 3 Outlook
Current Day 3 Convective Outlook graphic
and text
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).Day 4-8 Outlook
Current Day 4-8 Convective Outlook graphic
and text

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 10 Oct 2014 06:00 to Sat 11 Oct 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 09 Oct 2014 14:26
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 2 was issued for parts of S-France mainly for excessive rain. Another level 2 was issued for far NW Italy mainly for excessive rain.

A level 1 surrounds the level 2 mainly for an isolated tornado, large hail and severe wind gust risk. Excessive rain is also forecast.

A level 1 was issued for parts of NW Italy mainly for excessive rain and large hail.

A level 1 was issued for NE Spain mainly for an isolated large hail event.

A level 1 was issued for SW Spain mainly for excessive rain and an isolated waterspout event.

SYNOPSIS

A big trough covers all of NW Europe, while downstream ridge remains in place from Italy to the Ukraine. A weakening upper low becomes trapped over Turkey as geopotential heights increase to its north. Unsettled conditions persist.

DISCUSSION

... S-France to NW Italy ...

The Massif Central to the Gulf of Lion to the Ligurian Sea will be the main region for today's severe risk.

Brisk mid/upper layer SW-erly flow extends from the S-Bay of Biscay to the Baltic Sea. Deep layer flow exhibits a rather large angle to the Pyrenées, so lee effects over extreme SW France cause a broad area with less low-tropospheric pressure. This enhances an already ongoing onshore flow along the coasts of S-France. The shape of the orography helps to speed low-tropospheric winds up towards the Rhone Valley. Trajectories emerge from the NW Mediterranean, where TPWs range between 25-35 mm, which is not exceptionally high. Atop, persistent 300 hPa divergence affects S-France and combined with numerous passing short-waves, repeated thunderstorm development is anticipated. Roughly 1 kJ/kg MLCAPE exists along the coast.

Low-tropospheric winds dictate when and if storms train, but latest guidance maintains 20-30 kt winds (850 hPa) offshore and stronger winds onshore due to orographically channeling. Magnitude oscillates with passing short-waves but in general keeps its strength during the forecast. However we miss a confined LLJ core, which could act as focus for onset of training. That's probably why QPF maxima show a mixture of persistent upslope flow along the S-Massif Central or some temporal training along the immediate coast. Anyhow, excessive and flash flood producing rain is likely and a level 2 was added.
Tail-end storms and in general any more discrete storm along the coast has enough shear to work with to add a supercell risk to that forecast (20 m/s DLS and more than 200 m^2/s^2 SRH-1). An isolated tornado, strong to severe wind gusts and large hail accompany those storms. In fact an isolated tornado risk can occur well inland and despite uncertainty in CAPE magnitude, the level 1 was expanded north.

A similar scenario evolves further east over the Ligurian Sea. Weaker LL winds and less forcing limit the risk of an organized and long-lived training cluster, but repeatedly onshore moving and temporarily training convection probably brings heavy to locally excessive rain to that area. Despite uncertainties and restrained QPF maxima, impressive downstream moisture and persistent onshore flow should be enough for localized excessive rainfall amounts and hence another level 2 was issued.
The level 1 was was expanded far inland as 15-20 m/s DLS and 800 J/kg MLCAPE may support a few thunderstorms with large hail.

Especially during the night, thickness lowers a bit over the W-Mediterranean, but no real lift mechanism can be detected to break the remaining cap. Can't rule out an isolated storm over the islands or even off the Atlas mountains, but we think that ongoing capping issues should keep the liftime short. With abundant CAPE to work with, any storm could become severe due to large hail. Confidence in such a scenario remains too marginal for expanding the lightning areas far south. However, Corsica was included into the level 1.

... Spain ...

A wavy front bisects Spain from SW to NE and pools better BL moisture. This somewhat offsets meager mid-layer lapse rates, but diurnal mixing should keep final MLCAPE around 500 J/kg over NE Spain, around 800 J/kg over SW Spain and between 200-500 J/kg in-between. 20 m/s DLS over NE Spain may cause a few storms to become better organized with an isolated large hail threat. Less shear but high low-tropospheric moisture and repeatedly crossing storms bring an heavy rainfall risk to SW Spain. Both regions were highlighted by level 1 areas. SW Spain may also see an isolated waterspout risk with better LLCAPE.

Between both level 1 areas, clustering and slow moving storms may pose an heavy rainfall risk, but meager CAPE precludes organized storms and hence a level 1.

... Rest of the lightning areas ...

No organized DMC activity is forecast with lack of shear and/or CAPE. An isolated funnel/short-lived tornado event can't be ruled out over SW Finland, where diurnal heating supports a temporal increase of LLCAPE build-up but this risk remains too conditional for a level 1. The same for Ireland and Great Britain, where any mesoscale convergence zone could act as focus for a few funnel reports...mainly along the westward facing coasts, before onshore mixing begins.

mercredi 8 octobre 2014

Tropical Cyclone Three



Continental Europe animation

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 08 Oct 2014 06:00 to Thu 09 Oct 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 07 Oct 2014 20:41
Forecaster: PUCIK
A level 1 was issued for England and Wales mainly for severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for Eastern France mainly for severe wind gusts and to the lesser degree for tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for Western Iberia mainly for excessive rainfall and to the lesser degree for tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

A major cyclonic vortex will persist over the Atlantic with several short-wave troughs rotating around its periphery. Generally speaking, much of Europe will be under a WAA with southwesterly flow on the forward flank of the vortex. Towards the east, a ridge will amplify from N Africa towards S Italy and Ukraine. On the other hand, cut-off, slowly filling low will drift from Greece towards S Turkey. 

lundi 6 octobre 2014

Typhoon Vongfong



SPC Oct 8 2014 0600Z Thunderstorm Outlook

Oct 8, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT WED OCT 08 2014

   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS
   NEW ENGLAND ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.  A FEW
   STRONG...PERHAPS SEVERE...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON
   FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS TO GEORGIA AND PART OF THE CAROLINAS.  THESE
   STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING IN EASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTH
   CAROLINA...AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.  SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF HAIL...ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHEASTERN
   NEBRASKA...AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

   ...NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...
   A DEEP CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER NRN ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD
   THIS FORECAST PERIOD INTO QUEBEC.  ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS ONTARIO
   LOW...A COMPACT/NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
   60-70 KT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX WILL TRACK NWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND INTO
   NEW BRUNSWICK AND ERN QUEBEC.  ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD
   FRONT...SOME FAST-MOVING...STRONG LOW-TOPPED STORMS SHOULD BE
   ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...MOST LIKELY ACROSS RI INTO
   ERN MA.  MODEST BUOYANCY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND A STRONGLY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT...ENHANCED BY 40-50 KT WINDS IN THE LOWEST FEW
   KM...COULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
   BRIEF TORNADO.  GIVEN THAT GREATER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
   EWD OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE FIRST 1-2 HOURS OF THIS FORECAST
   PERIOD AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL INTO MAINE...THIS OUTLOOK
   ISSUANCE WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR THIS REGION. 
   STORMS SHOULD MOVE EXIT ERN MA /INCLUDING CAPE COD/ BY 15Z AND MOVE
   THROUGH MUCH OF MAINE BY 18Z.  

   ...NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NEB INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN MO TONIGHT...
   RELATIVELY WEAK HEIGHT TENDENCIES AND MODERATE W/NWLY FLOW ALOFT ARE
   EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.  WITH AID OF A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING
   SWLY LOW LEVEL JET...ISENTROPIC ASCENT FOCUSED NEAR/NORTH OF A WARM
   FRONT AND SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A WEAK MIDLEVEL
   IMPULSE REACHING THIS REGION AFTER 06Z WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ROOTED AROUND 850 MB PER
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AS STRONGER MIDLEVEL WINDS ADVANCE AWAY FROM
   THIS REGION TONIGHT...VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD TEND TO BE
   MODEST...THOUGH SOME STORM ORGANIZATION COULD OCCUR.  ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 500-1000 J PER KG/ WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME
   SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. 
   GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING ALOFT AND MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE
   LOW...PRECLUDING THE INTRODUCTION OF HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

   ...ERN AR/NRN MS TO SC/SRN NC...
   THE SRN EXTENT OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY IS
   EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND ERN GA...WHILE THE
   TRAILING PORTION WEAKENS AS IT MOVES SWD INTO NRN AL TO SRN AR. 
   STORMS THAT SHOULD DEVELOP OVER AR BY 12Z WILL MOVE ESEWD ERN AR TO
   NRN MS AND NRN AL TODAY...POTENTIALLY AIDED BY AN EWD MOVING WEAK
   MIDLEVEL IMPULSE.  MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
   25-30 KT SUGGESTS A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

   FARTHER EAST...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF
   ERN GA INTO SC AND SRN NC AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO A
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MODESTLY SHEARED /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
   25-30 KT/ ENVIRONMENT.  HERE TOO...LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY THREAT INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
Click map for watches

Today's Forecast

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dimanche 5 octobre 2014

Typhoon Phanfone




Continental Europe animation

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 05 Oct 2014 06:00 to Mon 06 Oct 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 04 Oct 2014 21:05
Forecaster: PUCIK
A level 1 was issued for SE / E Spain and the Balearic Sea mainly for the excessive precipitation and marginally large hail.

A level 1 was issued for E Tunisia, Sicily, S Italy and parts of the Ionian Sea mainly for excessive precipitation and large hail.

A level 2 was issued for SW Albania and W Greece mainly for excessive precipitation, large hail, tornadoes and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

A large high pressure system centered on the border of Finnland and Russia causes cooler and dry airmass advection over much of eastern and central Europe. At the same time a cold front will affect France and W Germany during the day, slowly decaying as it detaches from the upper level forcing. Generally inconspicuous situation remains at the mid to upper troposphere, where lower geopotentials cover much of Europe. As sharp mid-tropospheric trough ejects towards Norway, France and the central Mediterranean will remain under broad trough.

Most of continetal Europe will be devoid of any DMC, perhaps apart from parts of France, Switzerland and a possibility of weakly electrified Cbs over N Hungary / S Slovakia. More interesting situation can be found to the south - over the Mediterranean Sea.

DISCUSSION

... SE / E Spain ...

In the prevailing mid to upper tropospheric NW-ly flow aloft, onshore flow from the sea will enhance DLS values, which may reach around 15 m/s, already sufficient for some well organised DMC. Some marginal to moderate CAPE will build-up as steeper lapse rates are advected from the interior of Spain. With cool mid-level temperatures, marginally large hail may occur with the stronger updrafts. In case of the cell training near the coastline, local excessive precipitation event may occur as well.

... E Tunisia, Sicily towards Ionian sea ...

With EML advecting over the moist boundary layer, moderate to high CAPE values are simulated by both GFS and ECMWF, reaching 2000 - 4000 J/kg over the sea, decreasing towards the north. No significant mid to upper tropospheric forcing is forecast, but low level convergence along the coastal areas will likely serve as the trigger for initiation. Regarding wind shear, 15 to 20 m/s of DLS is simulated over the western coastline of Greece and Albania, with smaller values elsewhere. Current thinking is that with southwesterly low level flow impinging on the coastline, several clusters may already be ongoing in the beggining of the forecast period. The highest threat will likely be during the overnight hours from Sunday to Monday over the Greece coastline. A large MCS is forecast to form, fed by very moist and highly unstable airmass. Due to the favourable setup, all kinds of severe will be possible, including large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes. The dominant one though should be excessive precipitation with high likelyhood of cell training as low level flow strengthens and thanks to the very moist airmass.

Hurricane Simon



samedi 4 octobre 2014

Upper left Typhoon Phanfone,down right Typhoon Vongfong....

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-225.13,5.80,512

Typhoon Vongfong




Typhoon Phanfone To Bring 100KT Plus Winds To Japan

http://28storms.com/typhoon/typhoon-phanfone-to-bring-100kt-plus-winds-to-japan/

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 04 Oct 2014 06:00 to Sun 05 Oct 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 03 Oct 2014 19:35
Forecaster: GATZEN
A level 2 was issued for northern Tunisia and surroundings mainly for large hail and excessive precipitation and to a lesser extend tornaodes and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for the central Mediterranean mainly for excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

The European ridge amplifies and builds a blocking high across Scandinavia. Cold air advection from the east affects central Europe, where mid-level heights start to fall. Across western Europe, an intense lifting trough affects the UK and North Sea region. Its cold front will cross north-western France and the Benelux countries until Sunday morning. Weak lapse rates will only allow for shallow CAPE ahead of this cold front. Over southern Europe, centre of low pressure has shifted to the central Mediterranean. Northerly flow in the wake of the low will lead to dry air advection. Focus of convective development is therefore the base and eastern flank of the Mediterranean low and mid-level trough axis.

DISCUSSION

Southern and central Mediterranean

Rich moisture is present over the southern Mediterranean. Steep lapse rates are expected to advect offshore and will overlap with this moisture, creating high CAPE in the order of 2-3 kJ or more. CAPE will also evolve across northern Tunisia due to onshore moisture transport in response to the Atlas thermal low and sea breeze flow.

Thunderstorms are forecast to go on through-out the forecast period, initiating along land-sea breeze convergence lines, over the Atlas mountains, and along outflow boundaries. The most intense storms are forecast across and east of Tunisia where high CAPE overlaps with strong vertical wind shear exceeding 15 m/s in the lowest 3 km. Large hail and excessive rain are the main threat, but tornadoes and severe downbursts are not ruled out, especially when supercells can develop.

Further north, weak vertical wind shear will be present, but storm clusters will be capable of producing high precipitation and local flash flooding. This threat persists through the night, latest model guidance indicates the highest potential across the Ionian Sea and western Greece.