Oct 8, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT WED OCT 08 2014

   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS
   NEW ENGLAND ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.  A FEW
   STRONG...PERHAPS SEVERE...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON
   FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS TO GEORGIA AND PART OF THE CAROLINAS.  THESE
   STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING IN EASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTH
   CAROLINA...AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.  SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF HAIL...ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHEASTERN
   NEBRASKA...AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

   ...NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...
   A DEEP CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER NRN ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD
   THIS FORECAST PERIOD INTO QUEBEC.  ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS ONTARIO
   LOW...A COMPACT/NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
   60-70 KT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX WILL TRACK NWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND INTO
   NEW BRUNSWICK AND ERN QUEBEC.  ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD
   FRONT...SOME FAST-MOVING...STRONG LOW-TOPPED STORMS SHOULD BE
   ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...MOST LIKELY ACROSS RI INTO
   ERN MA.  MODEST BUOYANCY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND A STRONGLY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT...ENHANCED BY 40-50 KT WINDS IN THE LOWEST FEW
   KM...COULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
   BRIEF TORNADO.  GIVEN THAT GREATER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
   EWD OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE FIRST 1-2 HOURS OF THIS FORECAST
   PERIOD AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL INTO MAINE...THIS OUTLOOK
   ISSUANCE WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR THIS REGION. 
   STORMS SHOULD MOVE EXIT ERN MA /INCLUDING CAPE COD/ BY 15Z AND MOVE
   THROUGH MUCH OF MAINE BY 18Z.  

   ...NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NEB INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN MO TONIGHT...
   RELATIVELY WEAK HEIGHT TENDENCIES AND MODERATE W/NWLY FLOW ALOFT ARE
   EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.  WITH AID OF A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING
   SWLY LOW LEVEL JET...ISENTROPIC ASCENT FOCUSED NEAR/NORTH OF A WARM
   FRONT AND SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A WEAK MIDLEVEL
   IMPULSE REACHING THIS REGION AFTER 06Z WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ROOTED AROUND 850 MB PER
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AS STRONGER MIDLEVEL WINDS ADVANCE AWAY FROM
   THIS REGION TONIGHT...VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD TEND TO BE
   MODEST...THOUGH SOME STORM ORGANIZATION COULD OCCUR.  ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 500-1000 J PER KG/ WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME
   SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. 
   GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING ALOFT AND MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE
   LOW...PRECLUDING THE INTRODUCTION OF HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

   ...ERN AR/NRN MS TO SC/SRN NC...
   THE SRN EXTENT OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY IS
   EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND ERN GA...WHILE THE
   TRAILING PORTION WEAKENS AS IT MOVES SWD INTO NRN AL TO SRN AR. 
   STORMS THAT SHOULD DEVELOP OVER AR BY 12Z WILL MOVE ESEWD ERN AR TO
   NRN MS AND NRN AL TODAY...POTENTIALLY AIDED BY AN EWD MOVING WEAK
   MIDLEVEL IMPULSE.  MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
   25-30 KT SUGGESTS A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

   FARTHER EAST...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF
   ERN GA INTO SC AND SRN NC AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO A
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MODESTLY SHEARED /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
   25-30 KT/ ENVIRONMENT.  HERE TOO...LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE

   PRIMARY THREAT INTO THE EARLY EVENING.