...NEW ENGLAND... AS A BY-PRODUCT OF AN ONGOING MCS ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO...RELATIVELY STRONG NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS EXISTS FOR A CONVECTIVELY-AIDED/LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE TO CROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS...POTENTIALLY IN THE FORM OF ONE OR MORE MCS/S...WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO/SOUTHERN QUEBEC. IN SPITE OF MID-LEVEL WARMING/WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT OVER THE REGION...THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF A MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO QUICK/MODERATE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED EARLY DAY/SOUTHERN CANADA STORMS AND THE EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT...WITH SBCAPES POTENTIALLY REACHING 2000-3000 J/KG BY MIDDAY. WHILE MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN/DIFFICULT...THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING/NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW /45+ KT AT 500 MB/ WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT/SUSTENANCE OF A ONE OR MORE FORWARD PROPAGATING/ORGANIZED WIND PRODUCING SYSTEMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS MAINE/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS...IN ADDITION TO SOME RISK FOR LEWP/BOW ASSOCIATED TORNADOES.
mercredi 20 juillet 2011
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html . For July 21, 2011
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