mercredi 20 juillet 2011

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html . For July 21, 2011


...NEW ENGLAND...
   AS A BY-PRODUCT OF AN ONGOING MCS ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NORTHWEST
   ONTARIO...RELATIVELY STRONG NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS EXISTS FOR
   A CONVECTIVELY-AIDED/LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE TO CROSS
   SOUTHERN QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. CURRENT THINKING
   IS THAT STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS...POTENTIALLY IN THE FORM OF ONE OR MORE
   MCS/S...WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO/SOUTHERN
   QUEBEC.
   
   IN SPITE OF MID-LEVEL WARMING/WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT OVER THE
   REGION...THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF A MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS
   NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO QUICK/MODERATE DIURNAL
   DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED EARLY DAY/SOUTHERN
   CANADA STORMS AND THE EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT...WITH SBCAPES
   POTENTIALLY REACHING 2000-3000 J/KG BY MIDDAY. WHILE MESOSCALE
   DETAILS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN/DIFFICULT...THE AFOREMENTIONED
   MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING/NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
   DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW /45+ KT AT 500 MB/ WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR
   THE DEVELOPMENT/SUSTENANCE OF A ONE OR MORE FORWARD
   PROPAGATING/ORGANIZED WIND PRODUCING SYSTEMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
   MAINE/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR
   MORE CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS...IN ADDITION TO SOME RISK FOR
   LEWP/BOW ASSOCIATED TORNADOES.

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