May 25, 2012 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

...NORTHEAST...
   A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS SRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO
   CONTINUE TO LIFT RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS JAMES BAY AND OVER QUEBEC
   THROUGH THE DAY. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS
   CLEARLY EVIDENT IN SURFACE AND SATL DATA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
   EAST ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...AND TO NRN NY LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN SETTLE ACROSS NRN NEW
   ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE COLD
   FRONT WILL EXIST NORTH OF THE BORDER IN QUEBEC WHERE SEVERE STORMS
   APPEAR MORE LIKELY. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG THE
   FRONT WITH SWD/SWWD EXTENT WILL BE WEAKER...LATEST GUIDANCE DEPICTS
   AREAS OF WEAK TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION FROM NY ACROSS NRN VT BY
   LATER TODAY. MLCAPE VALUES IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REACH THE 500-1000
   J PER KG RANGE WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM AND WRF-ARW MODELS
   DEPICT PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR. ANY STORMS THAT CAN
   DEVELOP WILL EXIST IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR
   FOR UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE AND ROTATION. GREATEST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
   WITH REGARD TO STORM COVERAGE GIVEN THE RAPID TRANSLATION OF THE
   UPPER TROUGH AWAY FROM THE AXIS OF STRONGER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
   LATER TODAY. LATEST INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
   OF AT MOST SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING A RELATIVELY
   NARROW WINDOW IN SPACE/TIME FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
   GIVEN INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FORECAST OVER UPSTATE NY INTO NRN VT...A
   FEW ROTATING STORMS MAY EVOLVE IN THIS PERIOD AND POSE SOME THREAT
   OF DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS A TORNADO. SPC HAIL MODEL GUIDANCE
   INDICATES ONLY ISOLATED HAIL PERHAPS TO AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.