This is the day after tomorrow's (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: The 10% and greater probability thunder line is not included on the Day 3 Outlook. | Day 3 Outlook |
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This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note:A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point). | Day 4-8 Outlook |
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ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 050900
SPC AC 050900
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT TUE JUN 05 2012
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
WHILE LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS REMAINS
QUITE GOOD THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD...THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FORECAST ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CONUS APPEARS A
BIT LESS FAVORABLE THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY 5-7 PERIOD /SAT. JUNE 9 THROUGH MON. JUNE
11/. IN GENERAL...HINTS THAT STRONGER CAPPING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
REGION MAY CONFINE GREATER STORM COVERAGE TO AREAS N OF THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER ARE SEEN IN THE NEWER MODEL RUNS.
STILL...WITH A STRONG WRN U.S. TROUGH -- AND ASSOCIATED/ENHANCED
FLOW FIELD ALOFT -- EJECTING ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE SYSTEM...APPRECIABLE SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS EVIDENT. THUS -- WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
SEVERE THREAT...WITH AREAS EXTENDING FROM THE ND VICINITY EWD INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION DAYS 5-7.
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