mardi 5 juin 2012

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/

This is the day after tomorrow's (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: The 10% and greater probability thunder line is not included on the Day 3 Outlook.Day 3 Outlook
Current Day 3 Convective Outlook graphic
and text
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note:A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).Day 4-8 Outlook
Current Day 4-8 Convective Outlook graphic
and text

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 050900
   SPC AC 050900
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0400 AM CDT TUE JUN 05 2012
   
   VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   WHILE LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS REMAINS
   QUITE GOOD THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD...THE
   OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FORECAST ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CONUS APPEARS A
   BIT LESS FAVORABLE THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE
   POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY 5-7 PERIOD /SAT. JUNE 9 THROUGH MON. JUNE
   11/.  IN GENERAL...HINTS THAT STRONGER CAPPING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
   REGION MAY CONFINE GREATER STORM COVERAGE TO AREAS N OF THE
   U.S./CANADA BORDER ARE SEEN IN THE NEWER MODEL RUNS.
   
   STILL...WITH A STRONG WRN U.S. TROUGH -- AND ASSOCIATED/ENHANCED
   FLOW FIELD ALOFT -- EJECTING ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S. IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE SYSTEM...APPRECIABLE SEVERE
   POTENTIAL REMAINS EVIDENT.  THUS -- WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
   SEVERE THREAT...WITH AREAS EXTENDING FROM THE ND VICINITY EWD INTO
   THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION DAYS 5-7.

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