DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 AM CDT MON JUL 02 2012
VALID 021630Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN ND/FAR NERN SD INTO UPR GRTLKS...
...ERN ND/FAR NERN SD INTO UPR GRTLKS... LATE MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOW A RESERVOIR OF LWR 70F SFC DEW POINTS SITUATED BENEATH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7-9 DEG C PER KM FROM ERN ND SEWD INTO THE UPR MS VLY. UNINHIBITED AFTN HEATING WILL THEREFORE SET THE STAGE FOR MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000-4000 J/KG.
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AMONG DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...THE ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTER OF CNTRL/NRN ND SHOULD CONTINUE EWD TOWARD NRN MN THROUGH MID-AFTN. AS DOWNSTREAM INHIBITION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE SFC-BASED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS AND MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES SUGGEST INITIAL STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. EVENTUALLY...AS COLD POOLS CONGLOMERATE...A BOW ECHO MAY EVOLVE AND ACCELERATE ESE ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF MN BY EVENING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. IF THE MODE INDEED DEVELOPS IN THIS MANNER...STORMS COULD REACH PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN WI AND UPR MI BY LATE THIS EVENING WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK OF SIGNIFICANT DMGG WIND GUSTS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA COULD BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK IN LATER D1 UPDATES.
...CNTRL/ERN SD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD TSTMS WILL BE PSBL ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL/LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN/EVE. HERE...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THAN POINTS FARTHER N. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ATOP A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL IN STRONGEST STORMS.
...SERN STATES... THIS MORNINGS UPR AIR ANALYSIS CLEARLY SHOWS THAT THE LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERE HAS COOLED SINCE LAST EVE AS EXTENSIVE MCS CLUSTERS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION. STRONGEST POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG/W OF A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED BOUNDARY FROM PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH SEWD INTO AL/WRN FL PNHDL. IN THIS REGION...ERN FRINGE OF A STRONG EML STILL EXISTS AMIDST PWAT VALUES OF 1.8 INCHES. AS A RESULT...ANY STRONGER CORE THAT EVOLVES MAY PRODUCE A MICROBURST OR SOME HAIL.
SPC AC 021613
RépondreSupprimerDAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT MON JUL 02 2012
VALID 021630Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN ND/FAR NERN SD INTO UPR
GRTLKS...
...ERN ND/FAR NERN SD INTO UPR GRTLKS...
LATE MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOW A RESERVOIR OF LWR 70F SFC DEW POINTS
SITUATED BENEATH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7-9 DEG C PER KM FROM ERN
ND SEWD INTO THE UPR MS VLY. UNINHIBITED AFTN HEATING WILL
THEREFORE SET THE STAGE FOR MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000-4000
J/KG.
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AMONG DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE
AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...THE ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTER OF
CNTRL/NRN ND SHOULD CONTINUE EWD TOWARD NRN MN THROUGH MID-AFTN. AS
DOWNSTREAM INHIBITION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...STORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE SFC-BASED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS AND MAGNITUDE OF
LAPSE RATES SUGGEST INITIAL STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. EVENTUALLY...AS COLD POOLS
CONGLOMERATE...A BOW ECHO MAY EVOLVE AND ACCELERATE ESE ACROSS NRN
AND CNTRL PARTS OF MN BY EVENING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. IF THE MODE INDEED DEVELOPS IN THIS
MANNER...STORMS COULD REACH PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN WI AND UPR MI BY LATE
THIS EVENING WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK OF SIGNIFICANT DMGG WIND GUSTS.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
COULD BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK IN LATER D1 UPDATES.
...CNTRL/ERN SD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD TSTMS WILL BE PSBL ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL/LEE TROUGH
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN/EVE. HERE...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
REMAIN COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THAN POINTS FARTHER N.
HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ATOP A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL IN STRONGEST STORMS.
...SERN STATES...
THIS MORNINGS UPR AIR ANALYSIS CLEARLY SHOWS THAT THE
LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERE HAS COOLED SINCE LAST EVE AS EXTENSIVE MCS
CLUSTERS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION. STRONGEST POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS
WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG/W OF A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED BOUNDARY FROM
PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH SEWD INTO AL/WRN FL PNHDL. IN THIS
REGION...ERN FRINGE OF A STRONG EML STILL EXISTS AMIDST PWAT VALUES
OF 1.8 INCHES. AS A RESULT...ANY STRONGER CORE THAT EVOLVES MAY
PRODUCE A MICROBURST OR SOME HAIL.