Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0254 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

   VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF SRN SD...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
   INTO THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...

   ...NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...

   HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST AS SCENARIO
   STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN
   ROCKIES. INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ
   AND HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE
   ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER SD/WRN NEB THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
   E-W BOUNDARY AND CONTINUING EWD INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY WILL
   LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING
   WIND AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY.

   ...CNTRL IL INTO THE OH VALLEY...

   A FEW STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH NERN IL THIS
   AFTERNOON...BUT ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED ABOVE A CAPPING INVERSION. THE
   OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IN THIS REGION REMAINS CONDITIONAL...AND IT
   APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO ROOT IN THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH LFCS...WEAK MESOSCALE FORCING AND WEAK
   COLD POOLS WITH ONGOING STORMS. WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES GIVEN THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE THREAT.

   ...SRN NEW ENGLAND...

   REF SWOMCD 1030

   ..DIAL.. 06/11/2013

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ELONGATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NOW EXTENDING FROM THE SRN RCKYS INTO
   THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS WILL EXPAND EWD THIS PERIOD IN WAKE OF UPR
   IMPULSE THAT CROSSED THE TN VLY YESTERDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...POTENT
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER UT WILL CONTINUE ENE INTO THE NRN/CNTRL
   HIGH PLNS THIS EVE...BEFORE TURNING E AS IT CRESTS THE RIDGE TO
   REACH SD/NEB EARLY WED.