European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast

Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 20 Jun 2013 06:00 to Fri 21 Jun 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 20 Jun 2013 00:19
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 2 was issued for south-western and central Germany, the Netherlands, western Alps and surroundings mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extend large or very large hail, excessive precipitation, and tornadoes.

A level 2 was issued for north-western Italy and south-eastern France mainly for large or very large hail.

A level 1 was issued fo eastern France and Belgium mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for southern Sweden and western Poland to northern Balkans mainly for large hail and excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

A long-wave trough approaching over the north-eastern Atlantic merges with the west-European cut-off low that will accelerate northwards as negatively-tilted short-wave trough. The broad ridge from the Mediterranean to Poland will extend into the Baltic Sea region. A plume of very warm air is tied to this ridge, and latest soundings indicate an elevated mixed layer over a broad region. Rich boundary-layer moisture will allow for high CAPE values especially across central Europe ahead of the approaching short-wave trough on Thursday.