Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 25 Jun 2013 06:00 to Wed 26 Jun 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 24 Jun 2013 21:34
Forecaster: PISTOTNIK
Valid: Tue 25 Jun 2013 06:00 to Wed 26 Jun 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 24 Jun 2013 21:34
Forecaster: PISTOTNIK
A level 1 was issued for parts of Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova, the Ukraine and Southeastern Poland for excessive precipitation and to a lesser extent for large hail.
A level 1 was issued for Northeastern Poland, the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and parts of Lithuania for excessive precipitation and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.
A level 1 was issued for Northern Sweden for large hail and severe wind gusts.
SYNOPSIS
A long-wave trough is situated over Central Europe and a closed upper-level low over the Czech Republic, which brings these regions a return of below-average temperatures and plentiful (stratiform) precipitation after last week's heat wave. Postfrontal cool and rather dry air also moves southward into Western Europe and even the Mediterranean region, while it becomes exposed to subsidence in the neighborhood of subtropical high pressure.
This pattern effectively pushes the Saharan elevated mixed layer back to where it came from. Steeper lapse rates will only keep their last bastions over Southern Iberia, Greece and Turkey, but a strong cap and a lack of forcing will seasonably preclude any convection over most of the Mediterranean Sea despite some limited CAPE signals.
Further downstream, warm to hot air continues to move northward over Eastern Europe, Russia and even Scandinavia, bounded to the West by a wavy and slowly advancing cold front. The main focus for deep convection is provided by a low-level cyclogenesis over Poland, which simmers at medium level ahead of a vorticity lobe that travels northward from Serbia and Western Romania.
A level 1 was issued for Northeastern Poland, the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and parts of Lithuania for excessive precipitation and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.
A level 1 was issued for Northern Sweden for large hail and severe wind gusts.
SYNOPSIS
A long-wave trough is situated over Central Europe and a closed upper-level low over the Czech Republic, which brings these regions a return of below-average temperatures and plentiful (stratiform) precipitation after last week's heat wave. Postfrontal cool and rather dry air also moves southward into Western Europe and even the Mediterranean region, while it becomes exposed to subsidence in the neighborhood of subtropical high pressure.
This pattern effectively pushes the Saharan elevated mixed layer back to where it came from. Steeper lapse rates will only keep their last bastions over Southern Iberia, Greece and Turkey, but a strong cap and a lack of forcing will seasonably preclude any convection over most of the Mediterranean Sea despite some limited CAPE signals.
Further downstream, warm to hot air continues to move northward over Eastern Europe, Russia and even Scandinavia, bounded to the West by a wavy and slowly advancing cold front. The main focus for deep convection is provided by a low-level cyclogenesis over Poland, which simmers at medium level ahead of a vorticity lobe that travels northward from Serbia and Western Romania.
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