Jun 16, 2013 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0742 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

   VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   CNTRL/SRN GREAT PLAINS FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LOW-AMPLITUDE BELT OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL WLY/S WILL EXTEND FROM
   THE NRN PLAINS TO THE NE STATES DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE OVER THE
   ROCKIES. ONE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE FROM THE SRN
   CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A LEADING
   IMPULSE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW BRUNSWICK. A WEAK SFC
   COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE LATTER FEATURE WILL TRACK FROM LOWER MI
   TO NEW ENGLAND BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL TRAIL
   WWD OVER THE SRN FRINGES OF THE MODERATE WLY/S INTO THE CNTRL
   PLAINS. AS SFC PRESSURE FALLS COMMENCE OVER PARTS OF THE NRN
   PLAINS...THIS FRONT WILL ADVANCE NWD AS A WEAKENING WARM FRONT
   ACROSS PARTS OF NEB. MEANWHILE...A DEWPOINT GRADIENT WILL SHARPEN
   THIS AFTERNOON INVOF A STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND N/S
   OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN GREAT PLAINS FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
   THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE S OF THE
   WEAKENING WARM FRONT AND E OF THE LEE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MAINTAINED BY THE INFLUX OF AN EML.
   MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS SUGGEST THAT MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
   AROUND 1500-3500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS
   AMIDST MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS.