Jun 25, 2013 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY...SRN GREAT LAKES...NRN OH VALLEY AND NRN PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN NY AND NRN
   NEW ENGLAND...

   ...UPPER MS VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES/NRN OH VALLEY...
   A NEGATIVELY-TILED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN AND
   CNTRL PLAINS TODAY AS A LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LOWER
   TO MID-MO VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS
   ERN NEB AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EWD INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. TO
   THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE SFC LOW FROM MN AND WI SWD INTO
   IA...IL AND NRN MO...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER
   60S AND LOWER 70S F WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
   DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LARGE WARM SECTOR COMBINED WITH A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WELL-FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL JET MAY RESULT IN A
   SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. SEVERAL MODELS
   SUGGEST A LINEAR MCS WILL ORGANIZE AND MOVE ESEWD ACROSS SRN
   MN...NERN IA...SRN WI AND NRN IL. IF THIS VERIFIES...THEN AN
   ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

   ...NRN NY/NRN NEW ENGLAND...

   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SRN QUEBEC IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD AND
   APPROACH NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...DEWPOINTS SHOULD
   BE IN THE MID 60S F ACROSS MUCH OF THE NERN STATES WITH MODERATE
   INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE
   AHEAD OF THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN
   NEW ENGLAND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z
   ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND STEEP
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELLS.