lundi 1 juillet 2013

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 02 Jul 2013 06:00 to Wed 03 Jul 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 01 Jul 2013 22:26
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 2 was issued for N-Algeria mainly for large hail and severe downbursts.

A level 1 was issued for the C-Ukraine and adjacent areas mainly for large hail and heavy rainfall amounts.

A level 1 was issued for E/NE Germany and W/NW/N Poland mainly for an isolated large hail and strong to severe wind gust event. A very isolated tornado event is possible in Poland.

A level 1 was issued for parts of N-Finland mainly for an isolated tornado and severe wind gust event.

A level 1 was issued for the Pyrenees mainly for an isolated large hail event.

SYNOPSIS

A strong vortex over Iceland steers numerous smaller scale vortices/troughs around its southern/eastern fringe to the east/north. The first crosses Finland from the south to the north/northwest, the second one enters the Baltic Sea and moves due north during the forecast while a third impulse evolves just west of Scotland during the overnight hours. Further south, a flat upper trough affects most of SW Europe, whereas the long-lived cut-off low over the Black Sea gradually shifts east out of our forecast area.

All those features support various spots with enhanced thunderstorm probabilities, although the severe risk remains modest at best (excluding N-Algeria).

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