vendredi 26 juillet 2013

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 26 Jul 2013 06:00 to Sat 27 Jul 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 25 Jul 2013 22:05
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 2 was issued for parts of extreme N-Spain, parts of France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg and NW Germany mainly for large to very large hail (hail diameter in excess of 5 cm possible), severe to damaging downbursts, excessive and potential flash flood producing rainfall amounts and an isolated tornado event.

A level 1 surrounds the level 2 for a similar hazard but with a low chance for extreme events.

A level 1 was issued for extreme SE-France and far N-Italy mainly for excessive rainfall amounts, isolated large hail and strong to severe wind gusts.


A constant blocking pattern remains in place with strong ridging over S/C-Europe flanked by two stout troughs, one over the far E-Atlantic and the other one over far W-Russia.

At the surface, a quasi-stationary and wavy frontal boundary runs from the SE Bay of Biscay all the way to Denmark. Numerous small-scale disturbances evolve along that boundary and serve as foci for severe DMC. Probably the most pronounced surface pressure fall is expected during the night hours over the SE Bay of Biscay and SW France.
No other synoptic fronts play a role in today's thunderstorm forecast.

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