Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 08 Jul 2013 06:00 to Tue 09 Jul 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 07 Jul 2013 21:54
Forecaster: TUSCHY
Valid: Mon 08 Jul 2013 06:00 to Tue 09 Jul 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 07 Jul 2013 21:54
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 1 was issued for the Pyrenees mainly for isolated large hail and severe downbursts.
SYNOPSIS
An opulent surface high pressure area is situated over Ireland/UK and it exerts influence on most parts of NW/N-Europe. The only noticeable disturbance crosses far W-Russia which also weakens/opens up betimes while moving to the SE. In vorticity maps, there are some weak indications of numerous short waves circling the ridge and moving down along its eastern fringe, crossing the CAPE-plume along/south of the Alps. Despite the fact that this sounds reasonable synoptic-wise and is in line with weak mid-level height falls over S/C-Europe, it is hard to say if those signals come from the orography, from model QPF maxima or indeed have a pure meteorological background. Right now we won't create our forecast and especially the initiation reasoning due to a certain short wave but keep the forecast more general ... e.g.: there will be some kind of synoptic support for CI but this parameter remains diffuse both in space and time.
An extensive cyclonic vortex remains in place over the C-Mediterranean and assists in enhanced initiation probabilities for this area.
At the surface there are no signs of any healthy looking frontal boundary although numerous more or less pronounced convergence zones either from degenerating frontal boundaries by the past frontal intrusions or from what was left over by yesterday'sconvection can be analyzed. Beside of the orography, those convergence zones will also play a role for CI.
SYNOPSIS
An opulent surface high pressure area is situated over Ireland/UK and it exerts influence on most parts of NW/N-Europe. The only noticeable disturbance crosses far W-Russia which also weakens/opens up betimes while moving to the SE. In vorticity maps, there are some weak indications of numerous short waves circling the ridge and moving down along its eastern fringe, crossing the CAPE-plume along/south of the Alps. Despite the fact that this sounds reasonable synoptic-wise and is in line with weak mid-level height falls over S/C-Europe, it is hard to say if those signals come from the orography, from model QPF maxima or indeed have a pure meteorological background. Right now we won't create our forecast and especially the initiation reasoning due to a certain short wave but keep the forecast more general ... e.g.: there will be some kind of synoptic support for CI but this parameter remains diffuse both in space and time.
An extensive cyclonic vortex remains in place over the C-Mediterranean and assists in enhanced initiation probabilities for this area.
At the surface there are no signs of any healthy looking frontal boundary although numerous more or less pronounced convergence zones either from degenerating frontal boundaries by the past frontal intrusions or from what was left over by yesterday'sconvection can be analyzed. Beside of the orography, those convergence zones will also play a role for CI.
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