Jul 13, 2013 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0752 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2013

   VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NRN PLAINS...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PECULIAR PATTERN PREVAILS OVER CONUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAINLY
   INVOLVING RETROGRADING MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE THAT CURRENTLY LIES
   OVER ERN KY.  THIS LOW -- CHARACTERIZED BY -13 TO -16 DEG C CORE
   TEMPS AT 500-MB LEVEL -- SHOULD MOVE WWD TO SRN MO BY END OF
   PERIOD...BRACKETED BY STRONG ANTICYCLONES CENTERED OVER S-CENTRAL
   ROCKIES AND MID-ATLC REGION.  RIDGING WILL CONNECT THOSE HIGHS
   ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY.  PRIMARY BELT OF SWLY/WLY FLOW WILL EXTEND
   FROM PAC NW TROUGHING ACROSS NRN ONT TO LABRADOR.  EMBEDDED
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM ERN
   WA TO WRN ORE -- IS FCST TO EJECT NEWD TO SRN SK AND NERN MT BY
   00Z...THEN LOSE AMPLITUDE WHILE CROSSING MB THEREAFTER.

   ASSOCIATED SFC LOW -- CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER NRN WY -- SHOULD
   ATTACH TO LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT NOW OVER WRN MT AND SRN SK.  COLD
   FRONT SHOULD CROSS NRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY...REACHING SRN MB...NRN/WRN
   ND...AND NERN WY BY 00Z.  MEANWHILE...EXPECT FRONTOLYSIS WITH
   CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED AND QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE
   INITIALLY EVIDENT FROM ND/MN BORDER REGION SSWWD TO CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS.  COLD FRONT THEN SHOULD REACH NWRN MN...NERN/S-CENTRAL
   SD...AND NEB BY 12Z.