Jul 15, 2013 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1126 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013

   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF NERN MT INTO
   NWRN ND...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS
   SRN AB AND SK DURING THE DAY...WITH BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
   NERN MT INTO WRN ND. POCKETS OF HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL
   SPREAD NWWD TOWARD THE DEEPENING LOW...AND SEVERE STORMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO FORM BY AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT. STORMS WILL
   BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS SK BUT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
   LIKELY INTO NERN MT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. 

   ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE OH
   VALLEY...WITH A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
   PROVIDING RAIN AND STORMS.

   ...NERN MT INTO WRN ND...
   DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS COOLING ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND
   CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
   SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM NERN MT AND
   INTO WRN ND DURING THE EVENING. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...VEERING
   LOW LEVEL WINDS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A
   FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. RATHER LARGE
   SURFACE T/TD SPREADS ARE ALSO EXPECTED...BUT A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT
   BE RULED OUT ACROSS FAR NERN MT AND NWRN ND LATE. THE WARM BOUNDARY
   LAYER AIR COULD RESULT IN MERGING OUTFLOWS AS SUPERCELLS BOW WITH
   TIME...ENHANCING WIND POTENTIAL.