Mesoscale Discussion 1379,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1379.html

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1379 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0355 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...WRN ND...NWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 112055Z - 112200Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY WARRANT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BY 22Z. DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING HAS ALL BUT REMOVED CAP ACROSS ERN MT AND CONVECTION IS DEEPENING OVER THE SERN PLAINS OF MT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MATURE AND SPREAD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE AND STORM MERGERS MAY ULTIMATELY LEAD TO AN MCS OVER WRN ND ON NOSE OF LLJ BY LATE EVENING.