dimanche 14 juillet 2013

uropean Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 15 Jul 2013 06:00 to Tue 16 Jul 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 14 Jul 2013 22:04
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 1 was issued for N Spain and far N Portugal mainly for large hail, severe downbursts and locally heavy rainfall amounts.

A level 1 was issued for Belarus, parts of the Ukraine and far W-Russia mainly for heavy to excessive rainfall amounts. A few large hail events are possible, mainly east of Belarus.

A level 1 was issued for parts of C-Sweden into W-Finland mainly for severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado risk.


A more or less stagnant weather pattern continues over Europe. An extensive upper low over Poland into Belarus seems to undergo some re-organization with one vortex gaining strength over Belarus while moving ENE, whereas another one over E-Poland sharpens and moves to the SE as a potent short-wave trough. Other than that, no change in strength and position of the major upper trough is expected.
The long-lived upper low over N-Spain remains intact and keeps its wind field closed, although a gradual weakening is forecast until 06Z. Rising mid-level heights over the North Sea build east/southeast and cause a strengthening ridge over France into Benelux.
An intense cyclonic vortex approaches C-Norway during the day and affects also most of C/N Sweden and Finland during the forecast period. The accompanying cold front will be the main frontal surge during the forecast. This front crosses the N/C Baltic Sea during the night and enters Finland from the west during the end of the forecast. 

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