mardi 27 août 2013

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 28 Aug 2013 06:00 to Thu 29 Aug 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 27 Aug 2013 23:07
Forecaster: PUCIK
A level 2 was issued for SE Spain mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for southern part of Spain mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for Morocco and W Algeria mainly for (very)large hail and damaging wind gusts.

A level 2 was issued for Algeria and Tunisia mainly for (very) large hail and damaging wind gusts.

A level 2 was issued for E Serbia, S Romania and N Bulgaria mainly for large hail, excessive precipitation and to the lesser degree for severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for Slovenia, Croatia, SW Hungary and NW Romania mainly for isolated excessive precipitation event.

A level 1 was issued for southern Balkans mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

An active weather pattern will continue over Southern Europe as large scale cyclonic vortex persists over Central Europe, shifting eastwards with several short-wave troughs rotating around its periphery. The first one will affect Iberia during the day, the second one will cross from Italy towards the Balkans and the latter one will translate towards the Baltic states. Enhanced mid and upper tropospheric flow is simulated at the southern flank of the vortex. Another significant trough is expected to affect Scandinavia during the forecast period, while two ridges are forecast over the Atlantic and over Russia. As such, general synoptic scale situation slightly resembles an "Omega" pattern albeit it is not very stable with weakening vortex. Main frontal zone will lie over the Mediterranean and Balkans with weak temperature gradients over the rest of Europe, perhaps apart from Scandinavia.

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