jeudi 12 septembre 2013

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 12 Sep 2013 06:00 to Fri 13 Sep 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 11 Sep 2013 21:45
Forecaster: GATZEN
A level 2 was issued for central Serbia mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for the central Balkans and western Romania mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts, tornadoes, and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for the western Ukraine and Romania mainly for large hail.

A level 1 was isued for the Adriatic region mainly for large hail, axcessive precipitation, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for the north African coasts and the south Mediterranean mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.


Main synoptic-scale feature is a broad cut-off low slowly digging south-east from central Germany to northern Austria. Two main vort-maxima will travel with this trough. The first is associated with a rather intense short-wave trough that moves across the central Mediterranean and Adriatic before it becomes negatively tilted and moves on into the Balkans and Poland. The second is connected to the cut-off center and slowly spreads across southern Germany and the Alps into the Adriatic. Cold air advection will set in at the western and southern flank of the cut-off, spreading across most of the western and central Mediterranean. Further east, warmer air masses with better moisture will remain from the southern Adriatic into the central Balkans and Black Sea region. This moisture may overlap with increasing lapse rates ahead of the trough axes. Over northern Europe, ridging is expected ahead of a new Atlantic trough.

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