Sep 1, 2013 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0727 AM CDT SUN SEP 01 2013

   VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS
   VALLEY...

   ...MO/IL/IND...
   WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A LARGE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE WEATHER
   OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN STATES TODAY...WITH THE
   PRIMARY BAND OF WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM MT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
   REGION.  A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT OVER WI/UPPER
   MI.  THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
   TODAY...WITH THE TRAILING TAIL OF MID LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
   SWINGING ACROSS PARTS OF IA/KS/MO/IL/IND.  EARLY VISIBLE IMAGERY IN
   THESE REGIONS SUGGEST ONLY PARTIAL CLOUD COVER.  THIS WILL HELP TO
   YIELD POCKETS OF MLCAPE OVER 3000 J/KG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
   FRONT.

   THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER NORTHWEST MO...AND MAY
   PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.  OTHER MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
   ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
   ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.  THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND JUST
   ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A RISK OF HAIL AND
   GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN THE STRONGER CELLS.

   ...NM/CO/TX/OK...
   THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PARTS
   OF KS/OK BY EVENING.  BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
   PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST CO AND NORTHEAST
   NM...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
   OK THIS EVENING.  VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK IN
   THIS AREA...BUT A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND HOT SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.