Sep 2, 2013 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0743 AM CDT MON SEP 02 2013

   VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...NORTHEAST STATES...
   A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
   WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY...WITH SEVERAL SMALLER VORTICES ROTATING
   ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
   ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF NY/NJ INTO NEW ENGLAND WHERE
   LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT.  THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THIS MORNING WITH A THREAT OF HAIL AND
   GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.  LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BROKEN
   SUNSHINE IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL ALLOW SOME
   HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OVER PARTS OF NY/PA.  MODELS DEPICT
   CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF VIGOROUS
   CONVECTION IN THIS AREA.  IT APPEARS AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
   WILL FORM...POSING THE RISK OF ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF HAIL/WIND
   THREAT.  AT THIS TIME...LIMITED AREAL/TEMPORAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE
   THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.

   ...OH/TN VALLEYS INTO ARKLATEX...
   A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MS/OH/TN
   VALLEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT
   AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PROVIDING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS.  STEERING FLOW AND
   VERTICAL SHEAR ARE WEAK...SUGGESTING STORMS WILL BE RATHER
   DISORGANIZED.  HOWEVER...LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT IN THE STRONGER STORMS FROM EAST TX NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
   TN/KY.