dimanche 16 février 2014

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 17 Feb 2014 06:00 to Tue 18 Feb 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 16 Feb 2014 22:03
Forecaster: PISTOTNIK
A level 1 was issued for NE Italy, parts of Slovenia and Croatia for severe wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes.


The rupture of the formerly dominant Western European trough leaves a complex weather pattern. Its remaining Northern part accelerates Eastward into the Baltics, Belarus and Russia. The cut-off low over Morocco gets absorbed by a new, amplyfying Atlantic trough. In-between, weak ridging moves from Western into Central Europe.
Near the surface, aged and filling cyclones are located over Northern Scandinavia and near Ireland, and temperate Atlantic air has invaded most of the continent. A still active and pronounced frontal boundary runs from Romania via Northern Italy to Southern Spain. Extremely warm air is present to its South with 850 hPa temperature anomalies up to 13K over the Balkans. This frontal boundary is also overspread by a mid-level jet and is the main area of interest for convective developments on Monday.

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