vendredi 28 février 2014

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 28 Feb 2014 06:00 to Sat 01 Mar 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 27 Feb 2014 20:47
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 1 was issued for SW France mainly for an isolated tornado and large hail event.

A level 1 was issued for Corsica mainly for excessive rain.

A level 1 was issued for W-CNTRL Italy mainly for an isolated tornado event.

A level 1 was issued for the Balearic Islands mainly for an isolated tornado risk and strong to severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

Most of Europe are covered by a branch of the polar vortex. This configuration causes widespread cool to cold mid-levels. Driven by a 60 m/s mid-layer streak, an impulse dives to the SE and crosses France during the forecast. This feature overspreads the warm SSTs of the W-Mediterranean during the evening and overnight hours. Other than that, weak forcing and/or meager BL moisture result in another quiet day for DMC for most of N/C/E Europe.

Overall BL moisture remains meager at best, excluding the Mediterranean, where moderate air mass modification assists in pockets of seasonable moisture.

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