Feb 12, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1143 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AT THE START OF
   THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS EWD ADVANCE ON
   WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE SERN U.S.
   DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAK LOW OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF WILL DEEPEN
   GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS N FL THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH MORE
   PRONOUNCED CYCLOGENESIS PROGGED OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE
   OVER THE GULF STREAM.  THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL FOCUS THE PRIMARY AREA
   OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER THIS PERIOD.

   ...FL...
   A LARGE AREA OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BE ONGOING OVER
   THE SERN U.S. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
   FARTHER S ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT GULF COASTAL AREAS.
    WITH TIME...A BROKEN LINE OR LINES OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EVOLVE
   ACROSS THE ERN GULF DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
   UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FLOW FIELD ALOFT.  THIS CONVECTION
   SHOULD APPROACH WRN FL BY LATE AFTERNOON -- BUT CAPE IS EXPECTED TO
   BE LIMITED OVER INLAND AREAS...SUGGESTING THAT THE CONVECTION WILL
   WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ONSHORE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

   THAT BEING SAID...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONGER WIND GUSTS APPEARS
   TO EXIST AS THE STORMS CROSS THE PENINSULA...SUPPORTING MAINTENANCE
   OF 5% SEVERE RISK.  WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LARGELY VEER AHEAD
   OF THE ENE-WSW FRONT PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE ARRIVAL...SURFACE WINDS
   WILL REMAIN BACKED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW AS IT
   CROSSES NRN FL.  THUS -- A ZONE OF LOW /2%/ TORNADO PROBABILITY IS
   ALSO BEING INCLUDED AS A BRIEF SPIN-UP IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

   EVENTUALLY...CONVECTION SHOULD VACATE THE FL PENINSULA -- SHIFTING
   INTO THE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT.  WITH THE SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO MOVE
   NWD ALONG THE GULF STREAM AND REMAIN OFFSHORE...INLAND SEVERE RISK

   OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS APPEARS UNLIKELY ATTM.