lundi 3 mars 2014

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 04 Mar 2014 06:00 to Wed 05 Mar 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 03 Mar 2014 23:54
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 1 was issued for NE-Algeria mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts, excessive rain and an isolated tornado event.

A level 1 was issued for N-Tunisia mainly for large hail, excessive rain and an isolated tornado event.

A level 1 was issued for the westward facing coasts of C/S Italy, parts of Sicily and the E-Adriatic/E-Ionian Sea mainly for waterspouts.

A level 1 was issued for parts of the Ionian Sea mainly for large hail.

A level 1 was issued for Crete, the Aegean Sea and adjacent areas mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts, excessive rain and an isolated tornado event.

SYNOPSIS

A large-scale Rossby wave covers most of Europe. An active baroclinic zone along its rims steers numerous vortices from west to east. Those depressions filter moisture-rich air to the north and therefore beneath the colder mid-/upper-levels. Convective-wise the spin-down of a broad LL depression atop the warm waters of the Mediterranean will be the main focus for deep convection....to be more specific, an eastbound moving synoptic front will spark most thunderstorms (passing by the Ionian Sea until 18Z and crossing the Aegean Sea during the overnight hours).

High pressure over Russia advects cold and dry air to the west, which precludes thunderstorm probabilities for this forecast period.

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