mardi 4 mars 2014

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 05 Mar 2014 06:00 to Thu 06 Mar 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 05 Mar 2014 00:07
Forecaster: PUCIK
A level 1 was issued for parts of Turkey mainly for excessive precipitation and to the lesser degree for tornadoes and marginally large hail.

SYNOPSIS

As in the previous forecast period, the major macro-synoptic scale feature will be a large cyclonic vortex centered over the Mediterranean. It is expected to slowly fill in during the day, moving slightly towards the east. A ridge will amplify from the Atlantic to Western Europe while most of Central and Eastern Europe will remain under weak geopotential gradients. Dry and stable low-level airmass will preclude any pronounced risk of DMC over much of Europe. The exception being the Central and Eastern Mediterranean - here, cold mid-level temperatures result in quite steep lapse rates and marginal CAPE values. An isolated waterspout or small hail events might occur with storms in this area.

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