Mar 6, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1158 PM CST WED MAR 05 2014

   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH FL...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
   DAY 1 FORECAST PERIOD.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD TOWARD THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY PRIOR TO THE START OF DAY 1 IS EXPECTED TO REACH
   SERN MS/SRN AL INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY 07/00Z...AND THEN THE
   ATTENDANT CLOSED LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH THE SERN STATES /GA
   TO FAR N FL/ BY 12Z FRI.  HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS TROUGH ARE EXPECTED
   TO BE STRONGEST OVER N FL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY /500 MB
   HEIGHT FALLS OF 60 METERS/...WITH RELATIVELY WEAKER FALLS OVER THE
   SRN HALF OF FL /20-30 METERS/.  STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD OCCUR
   FROM GA INTO FL TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE
   SERN STATES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING.  AT THE SURFACE...AN
   AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL-NERN GULF
   AT 12Z TODAY...WITH THIS FEATURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL
   ALONG A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM 10 N PIE TO 40 N
   MLB THIS AFTERNOON.  A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL REACH CENTRAL FL BY
   EARLY EVENING AND THEN ADVANCE ACROSS MUCH OF S FL BY LATE TONIGHT.