Apr 1, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1232 AM CDT TUE APR 01 2014

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN KS INTO WRN MO...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NWRN TX...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS THE ERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A
   NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT
   LAKES AND INTO CANADA. MEANWHILE...A LARGER AND LOWER-AMPLITUDE
   UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH JET
   MAX NOSING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. 

   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT
   LAKES ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE TRAILING FRONT
   RETURNING NWD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS AR...OK AND NWRN TX DURING THE
   DAY. SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS
   IN THE 60S F TO SPREAD NWD...WITH 62-64 F DEWPOINTS INTO NRN OK BY
   WED MORNING.

   STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR IN THE DRIER AIR ACROSS WRN AND NWRN
   TX...WHICH WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS WITH A FEW STRONG
   TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT...SIGNIFICANT WARM ADVECTION
   AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR WITH A 50-KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WITH
   LIFT FOCUSED OVER ERN KS AND MO...WITH SCATTERED STORMS...SOME
   POSSIBLY SEVERE.

   ...NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK...
   STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR W OF THE DRYLINE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
   60S F RETURNING NWWD AS SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BROADLY INCREASES ACROSS
   THE SRN PLAINS. WEAK HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY AS THE
   GREAT LAKES TROUGH DEPARTS...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN ONLY WEAK
   CONVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS NWRN TX. THEREFORE...WHILE
   MODERATE INSTABILITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED...WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR
   PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MORE
   CONDITIONAL. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO MAY BE FOR A LINE OF TCU TO
   FORM ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE RETURN/RETREATING
   DRYLINE...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTING AS THIS AIR MIXES
   INTO THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. THE MAIN ISSUE TO A
   MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THE LACK OF PROLONGED FORCING
   AND LIKELY MIXING OF THE MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL JET
   INCREASES FURTHER DURING THE EVENING...CAPPING WILL EXIST...THUS
   STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

   ...ERN KS INTO WRN MO...
   WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
   IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BY AFTERNOON FROM ERN KS INTO CNTRL
   MO...BUT THIS INITIAL ROUND WILL BE NON-SEVERE WITH WEAK
   INSTABILITY. LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...STRONGER LIFT AND
   A MORE SUBSTANTIAL NWD SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL OCCUR...WITH STORMS
   DEVELOPING OVER ERN KS AND MOVING INTO WRN MO. THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES AS WELL AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL FAVOR SEVERE HAIL. THE MOST
   LIKELY CORRIDOR APPEARS TO BE FROM MANHATTAN KS TO COLUMBIA MO.