DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL KS TO WRN SHORE OF SRN LAKE MI... ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO SRN LAKE MI... WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS BIFURCATED WRN U.S. TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE...LEE TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN ACROSS KS/OK/TX SUCH THAT DRY LINE WILL MIX TO A POSITION NEAR MEDICINE LODGE KS...SWD TO EAST OF CHILDRESS TX. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...STRONG LLJ SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED CONVECTION SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN/WI/LOWER MI AS LLJ VEERS TOWARD LAKE HURON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE IN THE ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY. NRN BRANCH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND SFC PRESSURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS FORCING A PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT TO NEAR I-70 OVER KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. NEWD EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH ACROSS SERN NEB/CNTRL IA SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LATEST THINKING IS INTENSE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL BE NOTED WEST OF THE DRY LINE AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REACHED BY 21-22Z. ISOLATED HIGH BASED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE EAST OF THE DRY LINE...ESPECIALLY OVER KS WHERE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED JUST EAST OF WEAK SFC LOW. WHILE NAM CONTINUES TO BE QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN ADVANCING MOISTURE INLAND...SFC DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN TO NEAR 60F ACROSS SRN OK EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL KS PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION. AS A RESULT...SBCAPE COULD EASILY EXCEED 3000 J/KG WITHIN A FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BUT A STOUT CAP WILL LIMIT EWD PROGRESSION OF THIS ACTIVITY. PRIMARY TSTM THREAT AFTER DARK WILL FOCUS ALONG THE SW-NE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SERN NEB/IA WHERE WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE UVV. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD PW VALUES WILL NOT INCREASE ABOVE ONE INCH ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AS DEPICTED BY NAM AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE NEGATED A BIT BY DRIER DEW POINTS. LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY HIGH BASED UPDRAFTS AND MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS LATER IN THE EVENING. ..DARROW/ROGERS.. 04/12/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1143Z (7:43AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
samedi 12 avril 2014
Apr 12, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC AC 120535
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