Apr 23, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1246 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. LARGE HAIL
   WILL BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
   TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
   EJECT NEWD TOWARDS THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NRN PLAINS. AN
   UPSTREAM IMPULSE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL ROTATE THROUGH
   THE BASE OF THE BROADER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ...REACHING THE SRN
   ROCKIES THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
   THE CNTRL HIGH/NRN PLAINS WITH A DRYLINE MIXING INTO SW NEB TO W TX
   THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL PROGRESSIVELY OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE
   AND REACH THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS ON THU MORNING.

   ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
   THE PLUME OF RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES
   OF 1.25-1.50 INCH PER 00Z RAOBS AND GPS DATA/ WILL LIKELY EMANATE
   NWD FROM DEEP S TX WITHIN A N/S-ORIENTED CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE
   AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT/DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTURE INFLUX
   WILL BE RELATIVELY MODEST /ESPECIALLY WITH NRN EXTENT/...SURFACE DEW
   POINTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S N OF THE RED RIVER WITH LOWER 60S
   ACROSS CNTRL TX. 

   LATEST EXPECTATIONS REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK WITH TWO
   GENERAL REGIMES FOR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT AMIDST QUITE STEEP
   TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO NRN
   KS...STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
   BENEATH MODERATE-STRONG 500-MB SWLYS OWING TO THE GLANCING INFLUENCE
   OF THE NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A FEW SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM
   PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL. WITH LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND
   UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
   QUICKLY ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS. SEVERE
   HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING...WITH INTENSITY WANING
   OVERNIGHT TOWARDS THE MO VALLEY.

   FARTHER S...SCATTERED DISCRETE TSTMS WILL FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE
   LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD CONSIST OF
   HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT. LARGE HAIL /A FEW SIGNIFICANT/ AND ISOLATED
   SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. DURING THE
   EVENING...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME QUITE ENLARGED AS FLOW
   STRENGTHENS. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES MAY BE REALIZED BETWEEN
   00-03Z ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF NEAR 60 DEG F SURFACE DEW POINTS
   INVOF W OK/NW TX. STILL...QUALITY OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
   A LIMITING FACTOR TO A MORE ROBUST TORNADO RISK. WITH
   TIME...COALESCING OF UPDRAFTS AND PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA MAY YIELD
   A SMALL MCS MOVING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND N TX WITH SEVERE
   HAIL/WIND RISKS SUBSIDING EARLY THU.