Apr 30, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT WED APR 30 2014

   VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM VA/MD/WV SWD TO THE FL
   GULF COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
   TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
   UNITED STATES...CAROLINAS...AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE/PERSISTENT MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE SLOW EWD
   PROGRESS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS PERIOD...WHILE STRONG
   CYCLONIC FLOW SURROUNDING THE LOW BEGINS SPREADING ACROSS THE
   APPALACHIANS -- ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. 
   ELSEWHERE...RIDGING WILL PERSIST BOTH UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE
   LOW -- I.E. ACROSS THE W COAST STATES AND OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC/NEW
   ENGLAND -- THROUGH THE PERIOD.

   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A NEARLY STATIONARY
   OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE WI VICINITY IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE
   APPALACHIANS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS
   THE E COAST STATES OVERNIGHT.  WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND
   ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND E OF THE
   MOUNTAINS.

   ...MID-ATLANTIC/EAST COAST STATES AND VICINITY...
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   SLIGHT RISK AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...INCLUDING THE FL
   PANHANDLE REGION/N FL AND INTO SRN GA WHERE AN MCS SHOULD BE
   ONGOING.  WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO LIMIT
   AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL IN MANY AREAS...EXPECT OVERALL
   SEVERE RISK TO BE SOMEWHAT HINDERED BY A
   SOMEWHAT-LESS-THAN-FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  THAT
   SAID...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING
   BACKGROUND UVV SHOULD HELP FOCUS AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE/ASCENT...FUELING A DIURNAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE. 
   MEANWHILE...STRONGER FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY SPREADING EWD ATOP
   LOW-LEVEL SLYS WILL RESULT SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF
   ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS.  THUS -- WHILE TEMPERED BY GENERALLY
   MODEST CAPE...EXPECT SEVERAL BANDS OF STORMS TO CROSS THE SLIGHT
   RISK AREA THROUGH THE DAY -- ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RISK FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS AND SOME HAIL.  IN ADDITION...WITH VEERING/INCREASING FLOW
   THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW KM...SOME RISK FOR TORNADOES IS ALSO EVIDENT.
    RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER -- THOUGH DECREASING SOME AFTER SUNSET --
   SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
   THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE RISK
   AREA.