DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT MON APR 07 2014 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF STATES THROUGH NRN FL/GA TO THE CAROLINAS...SERN VA AND SRN DELMARVA... ...SYNOPSIS... A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THIS FORECAST PERIOD SHIFTING EWD FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND SHOULD UNDERGO SOME SHARPENING AS A PAIR OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ACCOMPANYING SPEED MAXES SHIFT ESEWD FROM THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PLAINS WITHIN THE BACKSIDE OF THE PARENT TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE OZARKS REGION AT 12Z TODAY WILL TRACK NEWD ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PHASING WITH A WEAKER TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INDICATING THE PHASED TROUGH WILL THEN BEGIN TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. AT 12Z TODAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE LOCATED IN WRN TN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD THROUGH MS TO SOUTH CENTRAL-SERN LA. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NEWD...REACHING CENTRAL OH BY 08/00Z AND THEN THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD EWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD...REACHING THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SSWWD THROUGH THE ERN CAROLINAS...SERN GA TO NRN FL BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS TO SERN VA TODAY AND THROUGH DELMARVA/NJ THIS EVENING. ...SERN LA/MS...AL/GA/NRN FL TO CAROLINAS/SERN VA/SRN DELMARVA... THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL RESULT IN TIGHTENING OF THE 500 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT/STRENGTHENING SWLY MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO THE ERN SEABOARD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SERN LA/MS INTO AL AT 12Z TODAY. IN ADDITION TO STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT...STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SSWLY WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT THE RICH MOISTURE /PW UP TO 1.75 INCH/ SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THE AFTERNOON.
lundi 7 avril 2014
Apr 7, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
SPC AC 070559
Inscription à :
Publier les commentaires (Atom)
Aucun commentaire:
Enregistrer un commentaire