lundi 7 avril 2014

Apr 7, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC AC 070559
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 AM CDT MON APR 07 2014

   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF STATES
   THROUGH NRN FL/GA TO THE CAROLINAS...SERN VA AND SRN DELMARVA...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THIS FORECAST PERIOD
   SHIFTING EWD FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND SHOULD UNDERGO SOME
   SHARPENING AS A PAIR OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ACCOMPANYING
   SPEED MAXES SHIFT ESEWD FROM THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PLAINS WITHIN
   THE BACKSIDE OF THE PARENT TROUGH.  MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   LOCATED OVER THE OZARKS REGION AT 12Z TODAY WILL TRACK NEWD ACROSS
   THE TN/OH VALLEYS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PHASING WITH A WEAKER
   TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
   AGREEMENT INDICATING THE PHASED TROUGH WILL THEN BEGIN TO TAKE ON A
   NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS TONIGHT.  AT 12Z TODAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
   BE LOCATED IN WRN TN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD THROUGH MS TO
   SOUTH CENTRAL-SERN LA.  THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS
   NEWD...REACHING CENTRAL OH BY 08/00Z AND THEN THROUGH THE LOWER
   GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD EWD THIS FORECAST
   PERIOD...REACHING THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SSWWD THROUGH
   THE ERN CAROLINAS...SERN GA TO NRN FL BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  A
   WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS TO
   SERN VA TODAY AND THROUGH DELMARVA/NJ THIS EVENING.

   ...SERN LA/MS...AL/GA/NRN FL TO CAROLINAS/SERN VA/SRN DELMARVA...
   THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL RESULT IN TIGHTENING OF
   THE 500 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT/STRENGTHENING SWLY MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS
   FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO THE ERN SEABOARD. 
   PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
   SERN LA/MS INTO AL AT 12Z TODAY.  IN ADDITION TO STRENGTHENING WINDS
   ALOFT...STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SSWLY WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT THE
   RICH MOISTURE /PW UP TO 1.75 INCH/ SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
   THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THE AFTERNOON.  

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