Day 2 Convective Outlook,,,,Monday april 14

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1229 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST
   STATES AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WILL DAMPEN AS IT
   EJECTS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST BY MON MORNING...IN RESPONSE
   TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS CNTRL CANADA/CONUS.
   PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD IMPULSE WILL TRACK
   FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD
   THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND SEWD ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST...WITH
   AN EXPANSIVE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. 

   ...GULF COAST STATES...
   WRF-BASED CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN MCS SHOULD
   BE ONGOING AT 12Z/MON CENTERED FROM W-CNTRL AL TO NRN LA...AIDED BY
   LOW-LEVEL WAA. AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE PROGRESSES AWAY FROM
   THIS REGION...WEAKENING KINEMATIC FIELDS AND LESSER INSTABILITY WITH
   ERN EXTENT SHOULD RESULT IN DIMINISHING MCS INTENSITY DURING THE
   MID/LATE MORNING. TO THE SW OF ATTENDANT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...AIR
   MASS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DESTABILIZE WITH DIURNAL HEATING
   AMIDST A PLUME OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. THIS ALONG
   WITH STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MINIMIZE
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BY MIDDAY. 

   SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING
   THE AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS SHOULD BE AT A RELATIVE
   MINIMUM EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
   MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS. LATE IN THE DAY...700-500
   MB FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE
   TROUGH. THIS COULD SUPPORT AN UPSWING IN CONVECTIVE
   INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION POTENTIALLY EVOLVING NEAR THE JUXTAPOSITION
   OF THE FRONT/REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STILL...CONVECTION-ALLOWING
   GUIDANCE DEPICTS LARGE SPREAD IN SIMULATED ACTIVITY WITH POOR
   MESOSCALE PREDICTABILITY AT THIS TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH AN ENHANCED
   CORRIDOR OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BECOME EVIDENT LATER...LOW
   CONFIDENCE IN THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EVOLUTION SUGGESTS BROADER/LOWER
   PROBABILITIES ARE APPROPRIATE ATTM.