samedi 5 avril 2014

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 05 Apr 2014 06:00 to Sun 06 Apr 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 04 Apr 2014 23:06
Forecaster: PISTOTNIK
A level 1 was issued for parts of Greece, the Republic of Macedonia, Serbia, Romania and Bulgaria mainly for large hail and to a lesser extent for severe wind gusts.


The complex, meridional springtime pattern persists into the current forecast period.
A cut-off low moves slowly eastward over Southern Italy. Its frontal system stretches from Northern Italy in occluded form to Western Romania, where it opens up into a warm front continuing to the Black Sea and a cold front running south towards Western Greece and the Ionian Sea. The resulting warm sector over Bulgaria and Greece is overspread by the remnants of a Saharan elevated mixed layer (refer to Fri 12 UTC's Brindisi and Zadar soundings).
The second feature of interest is a stationary and inactive frontal boundary under anticyclonic influence (sometimes referred to as a "baroclinic leaf") further North. It runs from the North Sea across Northern Germany, the Czech Republic and Slovakia into Romania, where it merges with the warm front of the Italian low mentioned before. It separates a body of warm air wobbling in the no man's land over Central Europe from remnants of a late polar outbreak to the Northeast. The cold and dry air has also left a transient surface high that moves from Belarus to the Ukraine.
Over Western Europe, an upper-level ridge peeks into Iberia and France, followed by a maritime Southwesterly flow ahead of an Atlantic low-pressure system.

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