mercredi 9 avril 2014

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 10 Apr 2014 06:00 to Fri 11 Apr 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 09 Apr 2014 21:15
Forecaster: GATZEN
A level 1 was issued for northern Iberia mainly for large hail.

A level 1 was issued for western Turkey mainly for excessive rain.


Low geopotential is present across eastern Europe. An embedded trough cuts off over Central Europe and digs into the Balkans. Low-level moisture is limited at first, but increases underneath the base of the cut off. Additionally, steep lapse rates are expected below the trough s centre. Thunderstorms are forecast from Poland to Hungary and surroundings during the day. In the night hours, some new storms may form further south as the cut-off approaches there. Overall risk of severe storms is weak due to weak CAPE and rather weak vertical wind shear. Best potential is expected across the western Balkans where shear is about 15 m/s in the lowest 3 km. Multicells seem to be the dominant mode and large hail is not completely ruled out.


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