jeudi 1 mai 2014

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 02 May 2014 06:00 to Sat 03 May 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 01 May 2014 17:47
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 1 was issued for SE Germany, parts of the Czech Republic, CNTRL Austria and the Balkan States mainly for a few large hail reports and excessive rain. An isolated funnel/short-lived tornado event is possible.

A level 1 was issued for parts of Italy mainly for excessive rain. An isolated waterspout event is possible.

A level 1 was issued for NW Turkey mainly for a few large hail events.


At mid/upper levels not much change is forecast. Weak gradients prevail with 500 hPa temperatures below -20 °C for most places. A strengthening vortex exits SE France during the start of the forecast and approaches the Tyrrhenian Sea from the NW during the overnight hours. Numerous weak mid-layer vortices with no significant change in strength continue to drift to the E/NE from the Balkan States to the Ukraine, whereas a substantial increase of mid-level heights is forecast just W/SW of Ireland. Therefore the blocking pattern continues.

In the lower troposphere however a change of the air mass continues from N to S, as a leisurely southbound moving cold front is followed by cooler/drier air from Scandinavia. Another synoptic feature will be a frontal boundary linked to the strengthening vortex over the W/NW Mediterranean. Other than that numerous more or less pronounced mesoscale convergence zones and the orography itself once again play a major role in initiation and regional thunderstorm coverage.

Aucun commentaire:

Enregistrer un commentaire