mardi 20 mai 2014

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 21 May 2014 06:00 to Thu 22 May 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 20 May 2014 21:20
Forecaster: PUCIK
A level 2 was issued for Southern to Central France mainly for severe wind gusts, large hail, tornadoes and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issed for Northern France, BENELUX, Northwestern Germany and Denmark mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and to the lesser degree for tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for Northern Russia mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for Central Ukraine, extreme Eastern Belarus and parts of Western Russia mainly for large hail and excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

The main macrosynoptic feature will remain in the form of a cut-off low and long-wave trough residing over the eastern Atlantic. Center of the cut-off will move towards western Iberia, with strong mid to upper tropospheric flow covering its southern and eastern flanks. A belt of southerly flow will stretch from northern Africa all the way towards western Scandinavia. With this flow, a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates is advected northwards. Towards east, a ridge will cover much of the Central Europe and the Mediterranean.

Closer to the surface, center of the low will remain off the coastline of NW Iberia. A wavy frontal boundary will stretch from Spain towards W France, SE England, Denmark and further into Scandinavia. Ahead of it, a WAA regime will continue over much of Western and Central Europe. 

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