mardi 20 mai 2014

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 21 May 2014 06:00 to Thu 22 May 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 20 May 2014 21:20
Forecaster: PUCIK
A level 2 was issued for Southern to Central France mainly for severe wind gusts, large hail, tornadoes and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issed for Northern France, BENELUX, Northwestern Germany and Denmark mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and to the lesser degree for tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for Northern Russia mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for Central Ukraine, extreme Eastern Belarus and parts of Western Russia mainly for large hail and excessive precipitation.


The main macrosynoptic feature will remain in the form of a cut-off low and long-wave trough residing over the eastern Atlantic. Center of the cut-off will move towards western Iberia, with strong mid to upper tropospheric flow covering its southern and eastern flanks. A belt of southerly flow will stretch from northern Africa all the way towards western Scandinavia. With this flow, a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates is advected northwards. Towards east, a ridge will cover much of the Central Europe and the Mediterranean.

Closer to the surface, center of the low will remain off the coastline of NW Iberia. A wavy frontal boundary will stretch from Spain towards W France, SE England, Denmark and further into Scandinavia. Ahead of it, a WAA regime will continue over much of Western and Central Europe. 

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