samedi 3 mai 2014

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 03 May 2014 06:00 to Sun 04 May 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 02 May 2014 22:43
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 2 was issued for the N Aegean Sea mainly for large hail, severe wind gust and an enhanced tornado threat.

A level 1 was issued for the Aegean Se, N Greece and NW Turkey mainly for large hail, severe wind gust and an isolated tornado event. SE Bulgaria could see a few large hail events.

A level 1 was issued for parts of Slovenia, Croatia, N-Bosnia and Herzegovina, parts of Serbia, W-Romania, parts of Slovakia and Hungary mainly for excessive rain (especially the southern part of the level 1) and for a few large hail events (mainly Hungary to the north).

A level 1 was issued for CNTRL/S-Italy, the N-Ionian Sea and the S-Adriatic Sea mainly for excessive rain and an isolated tornado event.


No major change in the synoptic pattern is anticipated. An upper low over the Tyrrhenian Sea starts to lift more to the E/NE as a 35 m/s mid-layer jet emerges from its base and spreads to the Ionian and Aegean Sea during the overnight hours. A ridge covers the far E-Atlantic and despite lowering mid-level heights, it continues to affect Ireland and UK during the forecast. A pronounced branch of the polar vortex remains in place over Scandinavia with cold low/mid tropospheric air. A few short-lived thunderstorms are possible over Scandinavia. Confidence in numerous lightning reports however is too marginal for a lightning area.
To sum up, the persistent blocking pattern is forecast to continue through the forecast period.

At lower levels an E-W bedded baroclininc zone runs from S-France to the Alps and all the way to the Ukraine. The wavy appearance of that front is due to the orography and also due to regionally enhanced thunderstorm activity from the previous day. In addition, a diffuse and broad LL vortex over the CNTRL Mediterranean drifts to the E/NE and some models show the development of other weak vortices over the E-Balkan States within that large-scale cyclonic flow. The main vortex over the CNTRL Mediterranean is accompanied by a wrapped up occlusion, which approaches the wavy braroclinic zone to its north. A complex interaction of those fronts is forecast from Croatia to Hungary and to the south.
Synoptic fronts also graze Ireland, UK and Scotland but they won't produce any organized convection.

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