May 14, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0225 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

   VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID/UPPER OH VALLEY
   AND LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE...AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO
   TONIGHT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING
   TORNADOES WILL EXIST ACROSS OHIO.

   ...PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...
   /1/ SVR PROBABILITIES WERE INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF OHIO AND
   ADJACENT NORTHERN KENTUCKY / NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. SFC ANALYSIS
   REVEALS THAT A STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 71
   CORRIDOR. MODIFICATIONS TO THE 18Z WILMINGTON OHIO RAOB INDICATE
   MLCAPE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS
   BUOYANCY IS FORECAST TO BE MAINTAINED/BACK SLIGHTLY WWD...OWING TO
   THETA-E ADVECTION RELATED TO 2-HOURLY SFC PRESSURE FALLS AROUND
   2.0-2.5 MB PRECEDING A CYCLONE DEVELOPING NEWD FROM THE MID-SOUTH.
   LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSES WILL CONTINUE TO BREED AN INCREASE IN
   EFFECTIVE SRH...AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS NEWD INVOF THE FRONTAL ZONE
   AND ALSO SPREADS NEWD FROM THE TN VALLEY. CONCURRENTLY...ILN VWP
   INDICATES STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW FOSTERING AN UPTICK IN DEEP
   SHEAR...AND DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
   NOTED IN OHIO. WITH SIMILAR ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS EXPECTED TO
   PERSIST...A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED SVR WIND/HAIL AND TORNADO
   PROBABILITIES HAS BEEN OUTLINED ADDRESSING THE SVR TSTM RISK THROUGH
   TONIGHT.

   /2/ THE SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN EXTENDED EWD INTO PORTIONS OF
   S-CNTRL VA INVOF A RETREATING WARM FRONT...S OF WHICH STRONG
   BUOYANCY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INTENSE UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS IN A
   WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ISOLATED DMGG WINDS GUSTS/MARGINALLY SVR
   HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH CLUSTERS OF STORMS IN THIS VICINITY.

   /3/ THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL AL WHERE
   ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING HAS OFFERED SUFFICIENT THETA-E
   DEFICITS TO DEPLETE BUOYANCY ON A WIDESPREAD BASIS.