May 26, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1158 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS A LARGE PORTION OF W TX...FAR
   SWRN OK...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
   WESTERN TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY DURING THE
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE...STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND
   PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS WILL FEATURE A SRN STREAM
   CLOSED LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. STRONGER
   FLOW ALOFT ACCOMPANYING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE PAC
   NW AND NRN ROCKIES. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT E OF
   THE MS VALLEY...WHILE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
   NORTHEAST. 

   ...PARTS OF W AND S TX..
   AN UPPER IMPULSE NOTED IN EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS
   MOVING EWD ACROSS NWRN MX...AND IS FORECAST TO REACH THE TX BIG BEND
   AREA BY MID-MORNING MON. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT THE PREVALANCE OF
   CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS
   W/W-CNTRL TX...WHICH WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON POSITION OF KEY
   MESOSCALE FEATURES /E.G. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/. 

   A SLIGHT EWD DISPLACEMENT OF THE PERSISTENT CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL
   LOW INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL OCCUR. MIDLEVEL SWLYS ATTENDANT TO
   SURROUNDING AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY
   STRONGER TODAY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS /E.G. 40 KTS AT 500 MB/. A MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALREADY IN PLACE...AND WITH AT LEAST MODEST SFC
   HEATING /TEMPS 70S-80S F/...MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000-2000
   J/KG APPEAR LIKELY IN AREAS UNPERTURBED BY MORNING CONVECTION. AMPLE
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 35-45 KT WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.


   CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ALONG PREEXISTING
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INVOF THE TX PERMIAN BASIN/EDWARDS PLATEAU
   TOWARDS THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A SHARPER MOISTURE
   GRADIENT/DRYLINE WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO ERN
   NM...AND SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH LARGER-SCALE ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER
   LOW...CONTINGENT ON SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION. 

   PRIMARY SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE
   PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GENERALLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW. HOWEVER...THE RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO MAY EXIST WITH
   SUPERCELLS THAT INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. LOCALLY
   DMGG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.