DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT WED MAY 07 2014
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN CO AND SERN WY NEWD
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FROM SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO MUCH
OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL LIKELY. SEVERE STORMS ARE
ALSO LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
DURING THE DAY WITH HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT...A
HAIL THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD INTO THE PLAINS LATE
WED WITH LEADING MID-TO-UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAX EXTENDING FROM ERN NM
INTO SWRN KS BY 00Z. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER
ERN CO AND JUST S OF A DEVELOPING FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WY/CO
BORDER NEWD INTO SRN MN AT 00Z. TO THE S...A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND
ROUGHLY FROM SLN TO CHK TO SJT BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND WILL BACK
NWWD DURING THE EVENING. BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S F
WILL SPREAD NWD ACROSS TX AND OK...RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF
INSTABILITY. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE AREAS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT LARGE HAIL.
...MUCH OF WEST-CENTRAL TX...WRN OK...S CNTRL KS...
STRONG HEATING...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...INCREASING SHEAR
PROFILES AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE DRYLINE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SUPERCELLS FROM WRN OK SWWD ACROSS TX TO THE RIO GRANDE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL WITH THE
RESULT BEING LONG HODOGRAPHS AND SPLITTING CELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL. SOME HAIL COULD BE VERY LARGE. AFTER 00Z...THE DRYLINE WILL
BACK NWWD...AND ALTHOUGH SOME BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING WILL
OCCUR...CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET COULD YIELD NOCTURNAL SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL FROM WRN TX INTO WRN OK.
...FAR NERN CO AND SERN WY...MUCH OF WRN NEB...S CNTRL SD...
HEATING S OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT WILL YIELD VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW IS
LIKELY TO INITIATE SEVERE STORMS OVER SERN WY AND NERN CO BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO. OTHER
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP EWD INTO WRN NEB ALONG THE FRONT WHERE
HODOGRAPHS WILL BE ESPECIALLY LONG...FAVORING HAIL...WIND...AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO WHERE LCLS ARE SUFFICIENTLY LOW.
...MN INTO WI OVERNIGHT...
CAPPING AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z UNTIL LIFT INCREASES ALONG THE WARM FRONT COURTESY
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS TOO UNSTABLE DUE TO
ERRONEOUSLY HIGH DEWPOINTS...STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND FAVORABLE
SHEAR WILL STILL YIELD LARGE-HAIL POTENTIAL DURING THE EVENING.
..JEWELL/SMITH.. 05/07/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0944Z (5:44AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
Aucun commentaire:
Enregistrer un commentaire