lundi 23 juin 2014

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 24 Jun 2014 06:00 to Wed 25 Jun 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 23 Jun 2014 23:17
Forecaster: GATZEN
A level 2 was issued for north-eastern Italy,Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, Serbia, Bulgaria, and Romania mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts. Excessive precipitation and tornadoes are additional threats.

A level 2 was issued ofr northern Algeria mainly for very large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for the central Mediterranean mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts. Tornadoes are also possible.

A level 1 was issued for the eastern Iberian Peninsula mainly for large hail.


The north-European trough will remain through-out the period. Vort-maxima will travel around its periphery over north-western Russia, from the Baltic States into Belarus, from southern Scandinavia to northern Germany, and over northern Norway. In the cool air mass steep lapse rates develop in response to diurnal heating. Given around 6 g/kg 30 hPa mixing ratio, at least weak CAPE is observed. Deeper instability evolves near the vorticity centres. Weak vertical wind shear and instability will limit the potential of severe storms over most places. However, latest reports indicate that non-supercell tornadoes have evolved. On Tuesday, some more events may occur. Highest potential is expected over the central Baltic States region, where rather high moisture, low-level convergence and steep lapse rates will overlap below a vorticity maximum.

Main convective activity is expected to go on over southern Europe. A region of rich moisture is present from the west and central Mediterranean into the Alps, Balkans, and Black Sea region. A plume of steep lapse rates from the African continent overlaps with this moisture over most of the west and central Mediterranean. Strong QG forcing is expected due to a jet streak that moves north-eastward on Tuesday.

Aucun commentaire:

Enregistrer un commentaire