mercredi 25 juin 2014

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 25 Jun 2014 06:00 to Thu 26 Jun 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 24 Jun 2014 21:09
A level 2 and level 3 were issued for Central Italy across the Central Balkans into much of Romania and Bulgaria for severe wind gusts, large hail, tornadoes and to a lesser extent for excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for N Italy across the N Balkans into N Romania mainly for excessive precipitation and to a lesser extent for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for parts of the W Mediterranean, NE Algeria and N Tunisia as well as for the S Balkans mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.


A complex high-index pattern is in place over Europe. The polar jet runs from Scotland across Germany to the Ukraine. Over the Eastern half of Europe, it gradually merges with an exceptionally strong subtropical jet that stretches from Northern Algeria towards the Balkans.
Near the surface, a long and wavy frontal zone stretches from Romania via the Southern Alpine region into Algeria. It further intensifies by the advance of the hot Saharan plume on its warm side. This zone is more or less stationary over the Eastern half of Europe, modulated by shallow cyclogeneses over Northern Italy and (probably) over Romania. Further West, approaching vorticity maxima over Central Europe and the Western Mediterranean region start to push the cooler air towards the Southeast.
An upper-level ridge brings stable and rather cool conditions into the British Isles and France.

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